Hi Tony,
1: Although storm looked like a near certainty, there is always some doubt as to if it will in fact hit and how much we will get. Look back at a couple of other predicted storms that did not materialize in our area this year.
2: If the storm hits, having released water just before the storm make actually make things worse for downriver areas.
3: Potential benefit of reducing crest is very low and may actually increase crest in certain areas downstream. See 2 above.
This storm is a very nice example. If NYC had increased release to 1500 about 48 hours before arrival of storm;
Reservoir spill would be delayed by perhaps 24 hours.
This would have reduced peak flow at Hale Eddy by about 400 cfs, or 7700 instead of 8100.
Peak flows further downriver may have actually increased because of the 1000 cfs already in the river.
FFMP has a mechanism in place to prevent this risk of making things worse. If the river levels are predicted to rise above a certain quantity, the releases are actually reduced before a storm to reduce downriver crests.
Taken from the FFMP:
iv. The current National Weather Service (NWS) flood stage for the West Branch Delaware River at Hale Eddy is 11.0 feet. Accordingly, Zone L1discharge mitigation releases will not be made from Cannonsville Reservoir when the river stage for the West Branch Delaware River at Hale Eddy is above 9.0 feet, or is forecasted to be above 9.0 feet within 48 hours of planned discharge mitigation releases, and releases shall be made in accordance with Zone L2 through L5 as provided in Tables 4a through 4g. This guidance may be modified at any time upon unanimous consent by the Decree Parties, if additional information demonstrates that a different cautionary stage should be used to limit the discharge mitigation releases.
Hope this helps,
Jim
I'm not shooting the messenger here.Just some points and questions.
The FFMP is more complicated than Obama Care.I sent it to my Attorney and CPA, and they are still both confused.
My question is,which is the same a TR maybe just a different way of asking it.
What happened to the food mitigation groups? When they hit the scene after the 3 so called "every 500 flood's "they were yelling for voids..
I see voids in the FFMP, but what good are they? It looks great on paper, but the reality of it is today is a beautiful day,the sun is shining everything is blooming.However the people from flood mitigation groups aren't seeing that way this morning , I'm sure of it..
They're thinking about the 3 floods, since today is perfect example of what was the precursor to the 3 major flood event's occurring.
This isn't about releasing 48 hours in advance..It's about voids.
Right now we are in the same spot as the 3 floods, high water, saturated ground, and reservoirs spilling or about to.
Than within a few days a massive storm moves in and dumps 6-10 inches of water.
Million dollar question Jim, what happens if we get a major storm on Monday that dumps 8 inches of rain in 18 hours starting Monday? I know it's not in the forecast but.
Well we know how that book ended 3 times, it was devastating to many people along the WB,EB, Neversink, and the Delaware for about 300 miles.
Anyone remember what happened in the town of Deer Park where the Neversink meets the D ?
About 100 homes where taken out because the Neversink came into the D like a tidal wave.That was because of the Neversink spilling at a record rate.
And as you know it was all about how much spilled over the Cannonsville, Pepacton and the Neversink.
In fact with any of the major floods, it wasn't feeder's,creeks, small stream's or run off it was all from big time spillage from the Reservoirs
I know all about the gang from the DRBC,and quite frankly it goes much higher up the food chain in all of the Sates and NYC..
Personally I do thank you for all of your efforts over the years, but the reality is we're not dealing with an 800 pound gorilla, its all about big business and politics which is way above anyone's pay grade here.
Have Fun
