Late Hatch Prediction

[Trout Nazi]

Second half of March is going to be significantly more moderate. Some melt from the freestones may breakup some of that ice and send it down river. Sticking to April. What do we win (other tha used fly line)?

 

[TR]

Second half of March is going to be significantly more moderate. Some melt from the freestones may breakup some of that ice and send it down river. Sticking to April. What do we win (other tha used fly line)?

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Well, Faber thought markets would drop a few years ago and we're now in a six year bull market.



http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/05/22/marc-faber-markets-dont-look-healthy-right-now/


Sorry, wrong board.


First prize is a Big Mac and fries at Hancock's premiere restaurant or Fox Belly Lo Mein at Ming Moon.


Your choice.

Tight lines.

 

[trico mike]

Jc,I actually think some do exsist. There are so many deep pools and blow downs for them to hide in. Every year I here rumors of some being caught in the inlet or down low on the river,but I think the returns are very minimal. I didn't step on any snappers but I did fall through the ice walking in the woods,didn't even realize I was walking on a frozen pond or something. Went down to my waist,wasn't wearing waders just jeans. Later on I sleep down a muddy bank into the river. That ended my trip but I covered about 2 miles of river before that happened.

 

[Johnw]

Around 7-8 years ago I assisted F and W electrofishings the Squan below the dam whose name escapes me now in search of sea-runs. None were found but there are ton of eels in there as there in the Toms.

 

[MACFLY]

Question is if they exist where are they spawning? They could have tracked them as well

 

[Rusty Spinner]

Question is if they exist where are they spawning? They could have tracked them as well

There have never been YOY electro fished, so no. It teaches an important lesson which is that if you want a true sea run program, you need to stock sea run fish, not 100+ year old hatchery mutants in hopes they will find the saltwater, fatten up, then swim back upstream to spawn. Same goes for attempting to get the Toms River into sea run brookies using Nashua strain fish from Pequest. You would need proven salters from out of state to even attempt to get a sea run program going.

 

[MACFLY]

I would think the Manasquan would not be ideal for a sustainable fishery but could do wel with a consistent planting of the right brown trout.

There have never been YOY electro fished, so no. It teaches an important lesson which is that if you want a true sea run program, you need to stock sea run fish, not 100+ year old hatchery mutants in hopes they will find the saltwater, fatten up, then swim back upstream to spawn. Same goes for attempting to get the Toms River into sea run brookies using Nashua strain fish from Pequest. You would need proven salters from out of state to even attempt to get a sea run program going.

 

[flyI4]

The stream does holdover fish well. Its such an ugly stream that most flyfisherman dont want to even attempt fishing it unless they live nearby, but in my experience there were a lot of holdover fish in that stream most years that I would catch into july, and then again in the fall when temps cooled down. The stream has a ton of structure and the fish have many places to hide that are literally impossible to fish unless u want to lose 100 flies trying to entice one out. For that reason I often used streamers there and just stripped them along the structure and fish would swipe at them. Occasionally I would find a fish rising but very rare. If u look- they also stock a ton of fish in the stream so its not a surprise that some hang around for the entire year.

 

[MACFLY]

The stream does holdover fish well. Its such an ugly stream that most flyfisherman dont want to even attempt fishing it unless they live nearby, but in my experience there were a lot of holdover fish in that stream most years that I would catch into july, and then again in the fall when temps cooled down. The stream has a ton of structure and the fish have many places to hide that are literally impossible to fish unless u want to lose 100 flies trying to entice one out. For that reason I often used streamers there and just stripped them along the structure and fish would swipe at them. Occasionally I would find a fish rising but very rare. If u look- they also stock a ton of fish in the stream so its not a surprise that some hang around for the entire year.

Yeah I agree it holds fish over. I just meant I never got the impression fish could reproduce very well given the bottom was generally muddy. I used to fish it when I working in fort Monmouth. I also fished the metedeconck a few times but was disappointed with the amount of trash on that stream. This was about 20 years ago so I would imagine it's worse today

 

[Trout Nazi]

Mid March, and the weather is changing, as predicted. Still sticking to late April.

 

[tomfly]

Here is a study on the effects of road salt conducted by the state of Maryland.

Road salt is one of the leading contributors to the decline of May flies. This equates the more snow storms in a winter the more road salt used. The more road salt used the less Mayflies survive to hatch. I was concerned by the brook trout finding. Something TU should do similar research on.

http://www.dnr.state.md.us/streams/pdfs/RoadSalt2013.pdf

Page 9
Toxicity also depends on length of exposure. Long-term exposure is more
harmful than acute exposure. Mayflies, stoneflies, and caddissflies are the most salt sensitive
stream insects
stream insects (Hartman et al. 2005; Pond et al. 2008; Pond 2010). Certain
dragonflies, crustaceans, beetles, and true flies tolerate the highest salt concentrations


Page 10
The group of benthic macroinvertebrates in Maryland streams that tends to be most
sensitive to pollution and watershed disturbance is the mayflies. The richness (number of
genera) within this insect order declined with increasing chloride concentration at MBSS
sites (Figure 7). Almost no mayflies were found in streams with chloride concentrations
greater than 500 mg/L.



Page 11
brook trout are only present in streams with
chloride levels less than 280 mg/L (Figure 8). The highest densities of brook trout are
found in streams with low chloride concentrations (less than 100 mg/L).

 

[Trout Nazi]

Here is a study on the effects of road salt conducted by the state of Maryland.

Road salt is one of the leading contributors to the decline of May flies. This equates the more snow storms in a winter the more road salt used. The more road salt used the less Mayflies survive to hatch. I was concerned by the brook trout finding. Something TU should do similar research on.

http://www.dnr.state.md.us/streams/pdfs/RoadSalt2013.pdf

Page 9
Toxicity also depends on length of exposure. Long-term exposure is more
harmful than acute exposure. Mayflies, stoneflies, and caddissflies are the most salt sensitive
stream insects
stream insects (Hartman et al. 2005; Pond et al. 2008; Pond 2010). Certain
dragonflies, crustaceans, beetles, and true flies tolerate the highest salt concentrations


Page 10
The group of benthic macroinvertebrates in Maryland streams that tends to be most
sensitive to pollution and watershed disturbance is the mayflies. The richness (number of
genera) within this insect order declined with increasing chloride concentration at MBSS
sites (Figure 7). Almost no mayflies were found in streams with chloride concentrations
greater than 500 mg/L.



Page 11
brook trout are only present in streams with
chloride levels less than 280 mg/L (Figure 8). The highest densities of brook trout are
found in streams with low chloride concentrations (less than 100 mg/L).

I've got wonder though if this will have any impact at all on the upper D hatches. You have 4 relatively large rivers located in a sparsley populated area. How much salt was actually applied up there? Also, lets assume that very little of it got in the water durring the coldest part of the winter because there was little melt. So when it does melt, you have additional dilution factor in addition to the rivers being relatively large. There may be a transient spike in salt given that most of it probably gets washed in with the first good melt, but does it even matter given the dilution factor of more water volume moving into a swiftly moving river? I doubt it.

 

[lightenup]

what if they used more sand, like the hippies in Vermont.....would the sand running off into the creeks be just as bad by smothering the bugs?.....how about we just shut down everything when it snows, then the bugs can live...I mean Rusty almost got shut down on the Musky because of some fucking Dragonflies....

 

[tomfly]

I've got wonder though if this will have any impact at all on the upper D hatches. You have 4 relatively large rivers located in a sparsley populated area. How much salt was actually applied up there? Also, lets assume that very little of it got in the water durring the coldest part of the winter because there was little melt. So when it does melt, you have additional dilution factor in addition to the rivers being relatively large. There may be a transient spike in salt given that most of it probably gets washed in with the first good melt, but does it even matter given the dilution factor of more water volume moving into a swiftly moving river? I doubt it.

Probably true. In the future that may not be. As population grows and expands in to rural areas so will the use of salt .
page 2

In most
areas, concentrations of salt in surface waters near roads exceed ambient stream and
groundwater concentrations. The rate of export (flushing) of salt from ground and
surface waters is usually slower than the rate of input. Ambient salt concentrations will
likely continue to increase until input concentrations approximately equal ambient
concentrations

Page 5
Interstate 68 is a major roadway running through Garrett County that
is treated with salt in the winter. The Savage River specific conductance readings tended
to be highest following snow fall events and were lowest when stream flow was higher
(presumably due to dilution). During summer low flow periods (when the potential for
dilution is at its lowest), the average conductivity remained above 330
uS/cm

 

[Trout Nazi]

what if they used more sand, like the hippies in Vermont.....would the sand running off into the creeks be just as bad by smothering the bugs?.....how about we just shut down everything when it snows, then the bugs can live...I mean Rusty almost got shut down on the Musky because of some fucking Dragonflies....

Don't kid yourself, they use a ton of salt, thats why every car up there is a rust bucket within 5 years. They switch to sand when the temperature gets really low. And they may give you the impression that they're a bunch of tree-hugging hippies up there, but their river and fisheries management is aweful. They could actually learn a thing or 2 from Jersey.

 

[tomfly]

Here is the conversion 1000 µS/cm = 640 mg/L = 640 ppm

 

[moosekid]

I have no idea what i'm talking about, but let's say 4/20 this year

 

[WBDluver]

My solunar table of insect reproduction ( which can be purchased at WBDluver.com) or from MicFly one week after he purchasers it, says April 15

 

[Trout Guy]

I also say we see some Hendrickson hatches on the upper Delaware system around the 20th. Probably a couple days earlier on the Upper East and Neversink.

No late hatches this year!

 

[MACFLY]

My solunar table of insect reproduction ( which can be purchased at WBDluver.com) or from MicFly one week after he purchasers it, says April 15

That link goes to a jihad web sitr. I’m calling the fbi you traitor

 

[Vance]

I sure hope the Hendrickson’s do not appear until mid May as I will be up there for 5 days from 14 May through the 19th. If it the Henriksons then maybe the March Browns will be the ticket. I’ll just keep my fingers crossed. Bill the mailman.

 

[Trout Nazi]

They've been releasing water all winter, that's been keeping the water temperature moderate. So, Hendricksons should be on time this year, because science.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

I sure hope the Hendrickson’s do not appear until mid May as I will be up there for 5 days from 14 May through the 19th. If it the Henriksons then maybe the March Browns will be the ticket. I’ll just keep my fingers crossed. Bill the mailman.

You can bet that hatch will be long over by then in any year. The exception is to get as close to the Cannonsville reservoir as you can, because that colder water sees a later emergence of Hendricksons and their spinners in the evenings. Otherwise, you're headed up for the "Tween Hatch" as in in between the Hendricksons and the March Browns.

 

[mudbug201]

I sure hope the Hendrickson’s do not appear until mid May as I will be up there for 5 days from 14 May through the 19th. If it the Henriksons then maybe the March Browns will be the ticket. I’ll just keep my fingers crossed. Bill the mailman.

Don't worry about it Bill. Your trip will be primetime for any number of hatches. Hendricksons will probably be sparse or gone by then, but March Browns start popping often by late April or the beginning of May. If it warms up fast in May, you could even see some early drakes on the water.

Also, caddis hatches tend to keep the fish looking up even between the big mayfly hatches.

Also, who knows what the flows will be like. Maybe you'll be chucking giant streamers in root beer.

In other words, doesn't make sense to try to be too "scientific" in your planning, because entropy. You'll have fun, almost no matter what.

 

[Trout Nazi]

Don't worry about it Bill. Your trip will be primetime for any number of hatches. Hendricksons will probably be sparse or gone by then, but March Browns start popping often by late April or the beginning of May. If it warms up fast in May, you could even see some early drakes on the water.

Also, caddis hatches tend to keep the fish looking up even between the big mayfly hatches.

Also, who knows what the flows will be like. Maybe you'll be chucking giant streamers in root beer.

In other words, doesn't make sense to try to be too "scientific" in your planning, because entropy. You'll have fun, almost no matter what.

Dude, when was the last time March Browns popped in April.

 

[mayhem]

Do these bugs still identify as hendo's? Middle of May should be good for something on top.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

Dude, when was the last time March Browns popped in April.

I hear the sulphur hatch is nearly over already up there this year.:crap:

 

[mudbug201]

Dude, when was the last time March Browns popped in April.

Two years ago. Floated the lower EB on April 28 and 29 and had great days on MB dries and nymphs. I'm always up there the last weekend in April, and I usually hit the very beginning of the March Brown hatch. But that's on the lower EB, where water temps are higher.

But the larger point is, no point in trying to say exactly when hatches will start and finish beforehand.

Here's a question: when did the Hendrickson hatch end last year? Were they still hatching in late June?

 

[Trout Nazi]

Two years ago. Floated the lower EB on April 28 and 29 and had great days on MB dries and nymphs. I'm always up there the last weekend in April, and I usually hit the very beginning of the March Brown hatch. But that's on the lower EB, where water temps are higher.

But the larger point is, no point in trying to say exactly when hatches will start and finish beforehand.

Here's a question: when did the Hendrickson hatch end last year? Were they still hatching in late June?

I was fishing Iso’s caddis late June of last year, but finding Hendrickson’s in late June right below one of the dams doesn’t really count. And besides, at that point in the year it doesn’t really matter since I can catch just about any rising fish on a size 12 rusty spinner.

 

[mudbug201]

I was fishing Iso’s caddis late June of last year, but finding Hendrickson’s in late June right below one of the dams doesn’t really count. And besides, at that point in the year it doesn’t really matter since I can catch just about any rising fish on a size 12 rusty spinner.

Huh. Okay, but what I'm saying is, the Hendrickson hatch last year actually went on for many weeks past what the hatch chart says, and not just below the dams. It was a regular topic of conversation on the river and in the shop.. the Hendrickson hatch that never ends...

And for that matter, most spring hatches last year were late, and some hatches that are supposed to occur weeks apart coincided, creating a bug soup situation. It was a crazy, crazy year up there.

But every year has a little crazy. The year before, everything was a bit early. That's part of the fun of it. My favorite years are the ones when I keep finding hatches all summer long that are supposed to be done, in places where the fish aren't supposed to be holding, much less rising. Keeps it interesting.

But look, I totally agree with your last sentence. A size 12 or 14 comparadun will also work in all kinds of hatches if you fish it right. For the lazy, the One Bug doesn't end in late april, it lasts all year long, and I'm lazy as fuck.