Late Hatch Prediction

[Big_Spinner]

Hi guys,

West Branch has been completely frozen over for a month!!



No hendricksons on the West Branch or Upper Mainstem until after May 1st this year!!!!

Very little warm release this winter, so no bug development either.

Guess what date I see my first Hendrickson at the house and win 6 flies!!!!

Jim

 

[sunsignarcher]

May 18......

 

[Trout Guy]

I'm voting April 25th.. I have faith in "global warming"

 

[Rusty Spinner]

Second year in row I moved my annual Hendrickson trip up a week to begin on April 30th (until May 3rd) and I'm afraid Jim may be correct and we'll have another late hatch like last spring. It's all about degree days. I'm personally hoping for a warm spring and an end to winter soon, but so far that pattern isn't appearing.

 

[lightenup]

Let me be vey clear.....The Hendrickson's will hatch when I am not on the river.....I will be busy with chores, or home renovations, or work...
To help you all out, I will post when I am not able to fish so you can enjoy the hatch.......

May 5th.....

 

[FIN-ITE 34]

May 1st, on opening day of NY spring turkey.

 

[Trout Nazi]

I'm gonna guess April 20th, I don't think things will be as late as everyone thinks. Although, big picture, I'm hoping for a cool spring and cool summer. The fishing last year was awesome, you could basically fish the big river most of the summer, and September was epic.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

I'm gonna guess April 20th, I don't think things will be as late as everyone thinks. Although, big picture, I'm hoping for a cool spring and cool summer. The fishing last year was awesome, you could basically fish the big river most of the summer, and September was epic.

I hope you're right, but last year they showed in big numbers on the Tuesday after we left and that was May 6th. You would expect them to begin lower on the mainsteam and move upstream, but they literally started everywhere in big numbers that Tuesday when the day was sunny and warm. Most of the last 10 (ish) years, that hatch began by mid-April and the one freakish warm year it began in late March. I moved up our trip last year after basically missing the hatch by Mother's Day weekend which is when we used to go up. Now instead of it being nearly over, it hasn't begun :crap:

 

[Trout Nazi]

I hope you're right, but last year they showed in big numbers on the Tuesday after we left and that was May 6th. You would expect them to begin lower on the mainsteam and move upstream, but they literally started everywhere in big numbers that Tuesday when the day was sunny and warm. Most of the last 10 (ish) years, that hatch began by mid-April and the one freakish warm year it began in late March. I moved up our trip last year after basically missing the hatch by Mother's Day weekend which is when we used to go up. Now instead of it being nearly over, it hasn't begun :crap:

He said first fly, not a vast hatch, so I'm playing by The Prices Right rules and trying not to go over.

I follow the weather closely this time of year (for skiing purposes), and the prediction is that this polar weather will ease by end of Feb, as the jetstream will tighten somewhat and the ridge will shift away from the western North America and focus itself more on the open waters of the Pacific Ocean. Not a 180 shift in weather, but we should be back to some moderation in March. So a "normal" spring is not entirely off the books. Then again, high-water could also push the hatch out.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

He said first fly, not a vast hatch, so I'm playing by The Prices Right rules and trying not to go over.

I follow the weather closely this time of year (for skiing purposes), and the prediction is that this polar weather will ease by end of Feb, as the jetstream will tighten somewhat and the ridge will shift away from the western North America and focus itself more on the open waters of the Pacific Ocean. Not a 180 shift in weather, but we should be back to some moderation in March. So a "normal" spring is not entirely off the books. Then again, high-water could also push the hatch out.

Yup, a buddy was just pointing out to me the long range weather and our general area is supposed to see 50s by the first week in March which would be fine by me since I'm no longer allowed to ski.

As for the Hendricksons, I recall seeing a few every day last year beginning in late April, but not the numbers needed to bring those fish up steadily like that hatch always does at some point. Let's hope we get a moderate spring, that's all I'm asking for. Not too warm and not too cold and I'll be a happy camper. Enjoy your skiing, I'm jealous.

 

[WBDluver]

Hi guys,

West Branch has been completely frozen over for a month!!

View attachment 11449

No hendricksons on the West Branch or Upper Mainstem until after May 1st this year!!!!

Very little warm release this winter, so no bug development either.

Guess what date I see my first Hendrickson at the house and win 6 flies!!!!

Jim

New or used flies?

 

[Trout Nazi]

Yup, a buddy was just pointing out to me the long range weather and our general area is supposed to see 50s by the first week in March which would be fine by me since I'm no longer allowed to ski.

As for the Hendricksons, I recall seeing a few every day last year beginning in late April, but not the numbers needed to bring those fish up steadily like that hatch always does at some point. Let's hope we get a moderate spring, that's all I'm asking for. Not too warm and not too cold and I'll be a happy camper. Enjoy your skiing, I'm jealous.

March looks like a mixed bag, potential for some big storms up north. I've had more powder days this year than tha last 3 combined. You wouldn't be jealous if you knew the temps me and the boy skiied in this weekend. It was -1 Saturday, but -13 Sunday with 25mph gusts.

Didn't see the big spinner falls last year with the Hendos, but then again I'm a March Brown/Iso guy. I like the sporadic big bugs because the fish get keyed in on the big spinners at night. I also like fishing Iso's in the riffs on the big river when the crowds are gone.

 

[MACFLY]

March looks like a mixed bag, potential for some big storms up north. I've had more powder days this year than tha last 3 combined. You wouldn't be jealous if you knew the temps me and the boy skiied in this weekend. It was -1 Saturday, but -13 Sunday with 25mph gusts.

Didn't see the big spinner falls last year with the Hendos, but then again I'm a March Brown/Iso guy. I like the sporadic big bugs because the fish get keyed in on the big spinners at night. I also like fishing Iso's in the riffs on the big river when the crowds are gone.

March Browns and ISOS are my favorite hatches. ISOs cause you can fish it all the way through October. Stocking up on some ISOs already

 

[emoussa]

March looks like a mixed bag, potential for some big storms up north. I've had more powder days this year than tha last 3 combined. You wouldn't be jealous if you knew the temps me and the boy skiied in this weekend. It was -1 Saturday, but -13 Sunday with 25mph gusts.

Didn't see the big spinner falls last year with the Hendos, but then again I'm a March Brown/Iso guy. I like the sporadic big bugs because the fish get keyed in on the big spinners at night. I also like fishing Iso's in the riffs on the big river when the crowds are gone.

I was skiing Whiteface on Sunday. It was as pretty nasty out but the snow was great and it kept everyone in Lake Placid. Great weekend.

 

[flyI4]

I will go April 22nd. Even last year, the bugs were there give or take 3rd week in april but the fish just weren't on them. In my experience- the main stem fishing gets hurt the most when this happens since the hatch ends before fish start really looking up and then you get stuck with millions of apple caddis and few fish consistently taking them on the surface. Tailwaters will still be good and usually have the best spring fishing when the spring fishing turns on a bit late. Hatch drags out until mid to late may. I'll give up a couple weeks for extended spring time hatches.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

I will go April 22nd. Even last year, the bugs were there give or take 3rd week in april but the fish just weren't on them. In my experience- the main stem fishing gets hurt the most when this happens since the hatch ends before fish start really looking up and then you get stuck with millions of apple caddis and few fish consistently taking them on the surface. Tailwaters will still be good and usually have the best spring fishing when the spring fishing turns on a bit late. Hatch drags out until mid to late may. I'll give up a couple weeks for extended spring time hatches.

I recall one epic day with you on the WB where we hit the first decent day of the hatch about 3 years ago

 

[flyI4]

That day reminds me of another thing about late springs. There is always a few places where the fish will rise earlier than others. When you find one of those- you are golden and that place happens to be one of them. Near Jim's house happens to be another. Three ingredients are shallow, flat, protected from the wind.

 

[TR]

Guess what date I see my first Hendrickson {in the Mud Flats}...

Jim

--------

May 4 through 14 this year.

Put another way, I don't think you'll see consistent afternoon water temperatures at 47 to 50 and staying there until early / mid May this year - 2015.

Never seen this much thick ice - more than 2 feet - in the Big Eddy in 31 years.

Frozen solid - bank to bank - plus it extends further south past the PA 652 boat launch.

Straightaways up and down the river are also frozen shut bank to bank.

2+ feet of snow pack throughout Cannonsville and Pepacton watersheds. (*see attached NYC DEP charts for late February 2015).

Forecast for March 2015 has every night below freezing.

You might still have ice floes on the river into mid / late April due to NO multi day thaw.

14 below in Narrowsburg this morning.

Tight lines.
TR
Gone Fishing Guide Service.Â* Upper Delaware River fishing and hand tied flies

 

[tomfly]

This year I will guess that the hatches including hendricksons will be sporadic and subpar late or early. The northeast experienced moderate dry conditions from late spring into the fall. The winter has produced record cold temperatures that created heavy icing on many streams. We have seen series of snow storms. Each storm has produced its share of road salt flowing into the streams. Add all this up and you have the perfect conditions for stunted larva growth. I say the hatches will be equal to worse of what we had last year.

 

[JeffK]

I'm saying late April - just a little past normal, and not so great.

This is based on the situation, as I remember, in the late 60's and early 70's when it was touch and go if I could fine any open water before the season closed for pre-season stocking. The S -bend in the Water Gap was jammed with several feet of ice in those years and when it let go it was quite the event. In those days the Hendrickson hatches were on time, but the water was so high and cold the fish really didn't rise too well. I haven't really had great Hendrickson hatch fishing until the last 15 years when we had warmer winters with lower water level April. This seems more like the winters of yore IMHO, so I am predicting the hatches will be like those days as well.

And like all predictions of the average, like fly14 says, there will be some time and place where the action will be hot. It will just be harder to find the sweet spot.

 

[MACFLY]

Any thoughts on whether this winter saw anchor ice in the rivers and what if anything this means for the eggs from this years spawn.

 

[Big_Spinner]

Hi MAC,

I do not think that anchor ice will be too much of a factor this year. Anchor ice usually forms when there is open water and cold air temperatures.

The super cooled flowing water adheres to rocks in riffles and builds up.

I think that the ice cover will prevent most of the anchor ice.

The bigger problem is the flows were so low this winter that I am sure there was extensive exposure of the bottom. No water and cold temperatures means the river bottom may have frozen solid, along with bugs and redds.

Release did go up to 150 on the West Branch earlier this week, but it may be too little to late for some of the bugs and redds.

The lower East Branch has been in pretty good shape with more natural flows from the Beaverkill.

Should be an interesting year!!!

Jim

 

[MACFLY]

Hi MAC,

I do not think that anchor ice will be too much of a factor this year. Anchor ice usually forms when there is open water and cold air temperatures.

The super cooled flowing water adheres to rocks in riffles and builds up.

I think that the ice cover will prevent most of the anchor ice.

The bigger problem is the flows were so low this winter that I am sure there was extensive exposure of the bottom. No water and cold temperatures means the river bottom may have frozen solid, along with bugs and redds.

Release did go up to 150 on the West Branch earlier this week, but it may be too little to late for some of the bugs and redds.

The lower East Branch has been in pretty good shape with more natural flows from the Beaverkill.

Should be an interesting year!!!

Jim

That sounds depressing. If true what bugs would be most impacted and what bugs might have a better chance of survival?

 

[Big_Spinner]

No idea really,

There are better bug people on this site than I.

If I had to guess, the attached caddis would have a tough time if they were in shallow water this winter.

The big burrowing mayflys should be in good shape.

Did not mean to be all doom and gloom. The releases we have had this winter are still a lot better than in the 80s and 90s when the winter releases on the EB and WB were 45 cfs or less for months at a time. Really low flows.

Jim

Jim

 

[flyI4]

I gotta say- stopping by the west branch on the way back from the SR today, I have never seen it so frozen this late in the winter. Frozen solid. Also a ton of snow up there. Looking at forward temps next 10 days- there doesn't appear to be a major shift in weather. 40 is not going to do much if the nights keep going back to freezing- especially on the tailwaters where the flow is very low and the river is fairly flat. The freestones will free up first as snow melts and the higher gradient sections begin to break open the ice. I'm thinking april may not see any consistent dry fly fishing (which we didn't last year either), and that april/early may will see some high flow events from the large amount of snow that will have to melt before the season really gets going and temps warm up. Hard to believe the opener is 30 days away. On a final and positive note-I did see quite a few LBS hatching on the SR today.

 

[TR]

I gotta say- stopping by the west branch on the way back from the SR today, I have never seen it so frozen this late in the winter. Frozen solid. Also a ton of snow up there. Looking at forward temps next 10 days- there doesn't appear to be a major shift in weather. 40 is not going to do much if the nights keep going back to freezing...

-------------

Uh, yup.

Still going by your original April 22nd call for the Hendricksons in the Catskills Mr. Fly?

I'll stick with early to mid May.

It's going to be a long time for that water (once it recedes and the ice floes melt) to get to the upper forties consistently.

We've got more than 24 inches of solid ice in the Eddy on the Big D. right now and since we, in the Catskills, are having more of an Adirondacks winter - maybe you'll see Hendricksons by mid May this year.

Tight lines Fly.
TR

FYI:
By The Associated Press
Posted Mar. 1, 2015 at 7:44 PM




February brought record cold, snow to Northeast - Times Leader - timesleader.com




ALBANY — Hardy souls who shivered and shoveled their way through February in the Northeast now have evidence of just how brutal the weather was, with record cold in at least eight cities and record snowfall in Boston.
"We're the standout globally," said Art DeGaetano, director of the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University. "It's colder in Siberia, but we're the farthest below normal."
The climate center shows the New York cities of Buffalo, Syracuse, Binghamton and Ithaca had their coldest months ever. The average temperature was 10.9 degrees in Buffalo, beating the 1934 record of 11.4. The normal average temperature for February in Buffalo is 26.3.
The monthly average was 9.0 in Syracuse, 12.2 in Binghamton and 10.2 in Ithaca. Syracuse and Ithaca each had 14 days of zero or below temperatures, a February record. The National Weather Service said Rochester also had a record-cold February with an average temperature of 12.2 degrees.
There were also February records elsewhere. Record low average temperatures for the month were set in Hartford, Connecticut, at 16.1; Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, at 20.9; and Portland, Maine, at 13.8. That's more than 11 degrees below normal for each city. Caribou, Maine's average February temperature of 2.5 degrees was also a record low, DeGaetano said.
Boston's 64.8 inches of snow easily beat the city's old record of 41.6 inches. If the city gets 5.6 more inches before the end of May, it'll be the snowiest winter on record, DeGaetano said. Through Feb. 26, Boston had 102 inches of snow. Normal is 34 inches.
Providence, Rhode Island, had a February record 31.8 inches of snow, bringing the season's total to nearly 60 inches, twice the normal amount.
Total snowfall for the season is way above normal across the Northeast, according to the National Weather Service. As of Feb. 26, Worcester, Massachusetts, had 108.6 inches, compared to a normal snowfall of 49.9 inches.




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Hendricksons in the Adirondacks? Usually May 15th through June 7th:


!Adirondack Fly Fishing and the Hatches within the 6 million acre park in upstate New York

 

[flyI4]

Yep april 22nd is seeming unrealistic now and I hope the bugs are late because if they do hatch in april the fish may ignore them with water temps being so cold. I was thinking yesterday that if very warm winter weather was able to cause hendricksons to hatch in late february a few years ago, it similarly could cause them to hatch in may due to a colder than normal winter.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

Yep april 22nd is seeming unrealistic now and I hope the bugs are late because if they do hatch in april the fish may ignore them with water temps being so cold. I was thinking yesterday that if very warm winter weather was able to cause hendricksons to hatch in late february a few years ago, it similarly could cause them to hatch in may due to a colder than normal winter.

That's what happened last year, but I need that hatch to begin in earnest on or by April 30th or my Trout Lout crew is going to hang me by my balls from a high tree at the WB Angler this year after I moved up our trip one week after many years of missing that hatch on the late side :crap:

 

[trico mike]

I was out sat chasing the unicorn of the manasquan also known as sea run brown trout. Saw a handful of stoneflies about a size 14. Suprisingly the squan vets a decent hatch of them and in years past I have caught a few fish on top there with stones. No sea runs though,starting to think they don't exist but it was nice to wet a line.

 

[flyI4]

they dont exist but some of the largest snapping turtles I've ever seen do. Think about that next time you step on something and aren't sure whether its a shopping cart or a turtle's head. I tried for many years with no sighting of one. I will say this- the stretch in farmingdale does hold over a surprising amount of fish and I used to have fun fishing there with holdovers. The fish will holdover there year round if the summer doesnt get too brutal.