FFMP at its BEST??????

[NJFred]

Jim,

I'm going to beat a horse here! Temperature targets would easily and simply protect the river here! No need for calculating Montague ave ect. and it would protect the river from all that downstream power generation which is really a problem.

This week is looking like a disaster in the making.

 

[Big_Spinner]

Hi Fred,

I agree that temp targets would be helpful, if you could meet them.

Using MOntague Target water in a way that is better for the fishery and river without using more water overall is an efficient use of water and much more likely to fly with NJ.

Common sense just says the rivers need more water this week. No need for temp targets, flow calculations or anything, just get more water down the river. A release of 200-225 on the EB would be good and 800 on the West Branch this week.

Jim

 

[Joe D]

Therein lies the problem. the FFMP is anything but common sense. It puts more water in the river when it isn't needed and it doesn't put it in when it is needed. It is also misnamed. It is neither flexible nor a management plan.

 

[MACFLY]

Jim,

I'm going to beat a horse here! Temperature targets would easily and simply protect the river here! No need for calculating Montague ave ect. and it would protect the river from all that downstream power generation which is really a problem.

This week is looking like a disaster in the making.

This is an age old issue and comes around every year. Nobody on this forum would say no to more water at this time of year. Question is how do you get the parties to agree to it. It always come down to this question. I dont know if FFMP is better or worse but frankly its all kind of irrelevant unless and until someone convinces either through sound science or through litigation that more water is not going to impact NYC and down basin states and in fact would be better for the overall system. The group that figures that out will have win the day. Having gotten up to the river for the first time this year last week I sure like to see the cold water and trout rising. More of that would be great!!! Anyone have any ideas on how to achieve that goal. Anyyone..Anyeon..Bueller

 

[Big_Spinner]

Hi MAC,

It is difficult to discuss as the temps soar into the 90's this week.

I do beleive that FFMP is the mechanism to do what you and everyone want.

FFMP provides the framework to allocate water and it has done a good job of doing that with the water made available to it.

It is, on paper, a simple matter to simply insert a new table or two into FFMP with higher releases when NYC is not going to be taking 800. A table for 700 and 600 would be all that is needed.

The water could then be allocated throughout the table.

There still needs to be an accessible bank for emergencies.

FFMP and our research continue to focus on transferring spills into useful and safer releases. The currrent version of FFMP does just that. Spills on the West Branch are reduced by 23% and that water is released for conservation.

The good science has been done and if you tell how much water I can use, I can tell you the best way to allocate it across the rivers, seasons and reservoir levels.

FFMP is better than where we were and a stepping stone (and I believe a huge step) to were we want to get.

I prefer working together for a flow plan and have worked with all parties that want to help. Comne up with sometihng better and I will test it!!

I would say that litigators should be working to block NYC from connecting the Delaware system to the Catskill System or NYC will be taking all 800mgd. 800 mgd represents 70% of the water that should go down our rivers!!! This is very scary!!!

Jim

 

[brachycentrus]

Hi MAC,

It is difficult to discuss as the temps soar into the 90's this week.

I do beleive that FFMP is the mechanism to do what you and everyone want.

FFMP provides the framework to allocate water and it has done a good job of doing that with the water made available to it.

It is, on paper, a simple matter to simply insert a new table or two into FFMP with higher releases when NYC is not going to be taking 800. A table for 700 and 600 would be all that is needed.

The water could then be allocated throughout the table.

There still needs to be an accessible bank for emergencies.

FFMP and our research continue to focus on transferring spills into useful and safer releases. The currrent version of FFMP does just that. Spills on the West Branch are reduced by 23% and that water is released for conservation.

The good science has been done and if you tell how much water I can use, I can tell you the best way to allocate it across the rivers, seasons and reservoir levels.

FFMP is better than where we were and a stepping stone (and I believe a huge step) to were we want to get.

I prefer working together for a flow plan and have worked with all parties that want to help. Comne up with sometihng better and I will test it!!

I would say that litigators should be working to block NYC from connecting the Delaware system to the Catskill System or NYC will be taking all 800mgd. 800 mgd represents 70% of the water that should go down our rivers!!! This is very scary!!!

Jim

Jim, The white paper already calculated habitat gains at different release regimens.
I think that the emphasis needs to be changing the FFMP with actual, real, NYC diversions instead of the allocated 800 mgd. Until NYC budges, everything is moot.

Anything to the contrary is working against what the white paper recommends.

I think that PFB is gathering evidence as we speak. They supposedly have 13 recorders on the WB this year and hopefully this will be part of the evidence for changing the FFMP and getting away from the 800 mgd.
NYC needs to be more flexible, not the FFMP.

What good does a 23% reduction in spills mean if it is kept behind the dam.

We dont need no freakin stimulus, just open the damn valve !!!!!!!!!!

 

[Big_Spinner]

Hi Brachy,

We are also in violent agreement!!!!

The White Paper has done some research with a diversion of between 600 and 650. This is great stuff.

The MOntague Issue and the White Paper are different issues.

The Montague Issue when resolved, will reduce or eliminate the yo-yo flows.

Right now if the White Paper were instantly installed the releases for MOntague would still be needed. The release this past weekend would still spike at 800+ for one day and then drop down to the 500 cfs release from the white paper. What I am suggesting that the White paper, or an improved version of it, be approved when FFMP expires, (or earlier). AND We do something witht he MOntague Target that would average the releases needed for it over the week. This would have increased the white paper numbers this past week from 500 to about 550 with no 850 release on Friday.

I am completely behind the White PAper or an improved version and have tried to rally all parties to support the White Paper.

Another point: The reduction in spills that was one of the results of implementing FFMP is the direct result of higher releases. IT is not stored behind the dam. If the reservoir is full on June first and full the following June 1st, then the water that came in had to either spill, be diverted or be released. Diversions are about the same from year to year, so the water either spilled or was released. IF there was less spill, the releases were higher.

Jim

 

[NJFred]

This is an age old issue and comes around every year. Nobody on this forum would say no to more water at this time of year. Question is how do you get the parties to agree to it. It always come down to this question. I dont know if FFMP is better or worse but frankly its all kind of irrelevant unless and until someone convinces either through sound science or through litigation that more water is not going to impact NYC and down basin states and in fact would be better for the overall system. The group that figures that out will have win the day. Having gotten up to the river for the first time this year last week I sure like to see the cold water and trout rising. More of that would be great!!! Anyone have any ideas on how to achieve that goal. Anyyone..Anyeon..Bueller

Macfly,

The reason for a temp trigger IS to conserve water while meeting some goals of the fishery. Yes the whole problem is there is not enough water behind the dam for all the different uses so an approach that sets realistic minimums but then spares water for when it's needed to handle the 10% situation (now!) would go along way.

 

[MACFLY]

Macfly,

The reason for a temp trigger IS to conserve water while meeting some goals of the fishery. Yes the whole problem is there is not enough water behind the dam for all the different uses so an approach that sets realistic minimums but then spares water for when it's needed to handle the 10% situation (now!) would go along way.

Thanks NJFred. When I read all of the questions and explanations around FFMP I always ask myself why it appears to be so complex. I tend to believe the more complicated it becomes the less likely folks are to adopt it and the more excuses folks would have to not implement it correctly even it were adopted.

 

[brachycentrus]

Hi Brachy,

We are also in violent agreement!!!!

The White Paper has done some research with a diversion of between 600 and 650. This is great stuff.

The MOntague Issue and the White Paper are different issues.

The Montague Issue when resolved, will reduce or eliminate the yo-yo flows.

Right now if the White Paper were instantly installed the releases for MOntague would still be needed. The release this past weekend would still spike at 800+ for one day and then drop down to the 500 cfs release from the white paper. What I am suggesting that the White paper, or an improved version of it, be approved when FFMP expires, (or earlier). AND We do something witht he MOntague Target that would average the releases needed for it over the week. This would have increased the white paper numbers this past week from 500 to about 550 with no 850 release on Friday.

I am completely behind the White PAper or an improved version and have tried to rally all parties to support the White Paper.

Another point: The reduction in spills that was one of the results of implementing FFMP is the direct result of higher releases. IT is not stored behind the dam. If the reservoir is full on June first and full the following June 1st, then the water that came in had to either spill, be diverted or be released. Diversions are about the same from year to year, so the water either spilled or was released. IF there was less spill, the releases were higher.

Jim

Jim,
This is where you,ve got me and I cant understand. How would Montague averaging provide more water for the fishery?
If you look at the last week, the average at Montague would be around 1800.
With the exception of the two day release out of Cannonsville, the bulk of this water came from PPL and Rio.
Additionally, I think that NYC screwed up and fell asleep, thus had to release that big sudden slug of water. Prior to the release, Montague was around 1600-1650. If averaged, I suppose it could hhave gone down to 1200 before NYC reacted.
Help me out here.
Thanks,
brachy

 

[Big_Spinner]

Hi Brachy,

This is a tricky question with many levels!!

If there was no Montague Target at all, there would be no extra water called as additional releases. So, in that sense, the Montague Target does provide more water as releases. This usually comes from Cannonsville. The bump to 800+ the other day was a call by the Rivermaster to NYC for a directed release. With no Montague Target that would not have happened.

Running with the idea of averaging that 800+ release over all the days in the week, you are correct, would not have "more" water for the river, but, and this is important, we would change the timing of the release, so that the water comes down the iver in a way that is mopre beneficial to the river.

IF you look at the PPL website for Lake Wallenpaupack, it has a schedule of release for about two weeks in advance. They tend not to release on the weekend. PPL makes more money selling power to NYC during the peak work week of Mon - Fri.

This week the release for power is scheduld to be 339 cfs each day through Friday. Then there is a power elease of zero on Saturday and Sunday. So, whatever the release out of Cannonsville is, you can expect a bump up by another 339 on Thursday and Friday.

You will notice that I have not mentioned FFMP, because the Montague Releases are over and above anything in FFMP.

Rivermaster computes the "directed release" very day and tells NYC what is required three days in advance.

This release forecast is based on known flows, predicted rain, known power releases and known conservation releases. Since we know that weather is variable and power guys can change their minds it becomes complicated to add NJFREDs temperature target releases on top of all that.

Anyway, this week I would expect to see Cannonsville release increase 20-30 everyday and then a big jump on Thursday or Friday. As a general rule Montague releases start at midnight. The ramping rate for Montague is fast compared to the ramping rates built into FFMP for FFMP releases. Most all of the yo-yo flows you see on the river are now associated with Montague Releases and not FFMP.

This can all still be integrated together for the new FREDMACBRACHY flow plan which we are gonig to get for 2011!!!! This stands for Flow Really.... you get the picture!!!

Good questions guys!!!

Complicated? Yes, in many ways, but then the entire basin is complicated with lots of water users.

Not sure I answered your question....

I am not talking about averaging the reading at Montague, but what the Rivermaster calls for in Directed Releases.

Yesterday Montague was covered by natural flow+conservation release+power releases

Today natural flow was a bit less and you saw a small rivermaster call for water, hence the small increase from Cannonsville. Expect similar small increases the next couple of days and then the big one for the weekend.

Montague Averaging has to do with these calls for water. Instead of say the extra 40 today, then 70, then 100, then 800, then 800, then 120, then 140 the next 6 days, average them out to get an increase of 345 everyday this week. This would increase cannonsville from the baseline under FFMP of 325 to 670, EVERY DAY THIS WEEK!!!! How great would that be? This uses no more water than needed for Montague, just changes the timing.

Jim

Jim

 

[brachycentrus]

Yup,

Definitely complicated, but it doesnt have to be. If NYC would allow their actual historic diversions in any flow plan, then there would be plenty of water for the fishery, as FUDR has been saying for years and the white paper proves it and takes it a step further by quantifying habitat gains at different flow models.

What really is salt in a wound is that there is habit/temperature releases out of Wallenpaupak on the weekends to protect a largely hatchery fishery, while the Upper D fishery suffers.
Even the Wallenpaupak habitat release counts towards satisfying Montague. How messed up is that?

 

[Big_Spinner]

Hi Brachy,

Completely agree,

Jim

 

[NJFred]

Lordville at 80 degrees...:holy: Cannonsville valve is closing as I type this.... release falling. Criminal... Simply Criminal. Cannonsville at 90% capacity.

All that downstream water meeting Montague mins. Screw flow averaging... just give us a temperature triggered release at Lordville. Simple... very simple.

 

[NJFred]

Hi Brachy,



Anyway, this week I would expect to see Cannonsville release increase 20-30 everyday and then a big jump on Thursday or Friday. As a general rule Montague releases start at midnight. The ramping rate for Montague is fast compared to the ramping rates built into FFMP for FFMP releases. Most all of the yo-yo flows you see on the river are now associated with Montague Releases and not FFMP.



Jim

Jim... any clue as to why are they closing the Cannonsville valve as I type this?

 

[brachycentrus]

So Jim,
Please explain to me how this Extraordinary Needs Bank works. Is this one of the Flexible components that requires a unanimous vote by the Decree Parties to activate.
I,m with Fred on this one. IT IS criminal !!!!!

 

[NJFred]

So Jim,
Please explain to me how this Extraordinary Needs Bank works. Is this one of the Flexible components that requires a unanimous vote by the Decree Parties to activate.
I,m with Fred on this one. IT IS criminal !!!!!

It doesn't. If I recall correctly. Last year it was triggered only after days of haggling... Water came only after the heat wave broke. Let's get some simple temperature trigger into the equation against a set aside agreed upon bank.

 

[Big_Spinner]

Hi guys,

It is brutal up here. Warm nights too.

Fred: If you look at PPL releases schedule, my guess is that the small decrease was because PPL changed their mind and had reported a release of 339, but bumped it up to 417, so I guess there was an adjustment.

Extraordinary Needs bank is a joke, as has been nearly all Thermal Banks. The quantity of water is too small and the rules that govern the releases are too restrictive and cumbersome.

A bank of water that can be used with few restrictions would not have to be very large if the White PAper minimum releases are in place.

Not sure why you are against the averaging of MOntague releases. It really can help without using more water.

If you have all three in place this week, the minimum release would be 500 under FFMP/White Paper, the MOntague averaing would increase the releases during the week to about 650 and decrease the weekend release from 1000 to 650.

Then you can add water from the temp target bank on top of the 650. Most weeks 650 is probably enough, except in record heat like this week.

I would probably cap the release on the WB at 800 to conserve the nice cold water inventory in the reservoir.

Notice the EB release increased to 175 yesterday. I am not sure if this is some of the directed release for montague or an extraordinary needs bank.
I know that NYC was asked to bump up EB release using directed release water.

If the minimum releases are high enough there is less need for temperature targets. Ideally, there would be no "thermal bank" of water to use for temperature targets. If there is a need , just release it. Not likely though!!!

Jim

 

[COZ]

Brachy,

As per my conversation with the Deputy River Master Gary Polacheck yesterday the big slug of water was because PPL was not going to generate power thus making a need for water from Cannonsville to meet the Mont target. At the last Min PPL did generate because the Power demand was high thus putting water in from Lackawaxen resulting in a cut back from Cannonsville. The additional water from Pepacton was also to meet Mont target. I also pt in the request since the release data is known three days in advance is there any way this info can be shared with the public so they can plan around the releases. He said it was a good question that has also been requested by down river businesses. He is taking this request to his superiors and powers to be to see if this information can be released 3 days prior to operation.
He also added that we could see the 525 range for the next few days and possiable water from the EMB to help deal with high water temps during these extreme heat wave. As of thursday we should see this taking place if Mont target s being met by PPL. On another note this 525 from Cannonsville under current temps is a way to see if the White Paper would hold up to the challenge. I do feel it will fall short and in deed needs to have Higher CFS release and additional temperature targets in place.

FYI, FUDR will be attending the DRBC meeting in Trenton on the 14th to review the release of the Dwarf Wedge Mussel Study and to further lobby for higher managed releases in these critical times. Coz

 

[Big_Spinner]

Nice COZ!!!

 

[Big_Spinner]

Hi COZ,

Just wondered if you have made any progress on the Rivermaster hotline for expected releases.

IT might be easier to have the NYC hotline simply project releases out 2-3 days, they have the same info that the rivermaster has and are actually the ones that decide where the water will come from.

Jim

 

[MACFLY]

So what is the latest on Delaware flow plans. Has anything been officially approved yet. If not what is the current plan and how long is it in effect for. What has FUDR been up to lately thanks

 

[Future Fanatic]

So what is the latest on Delaware flow plans. Has anything been officially approved yet. If not what is the current plan and how long is it in effect for. What has FUDR been up to lately thanks

The short term plan is to pray for snow. I'm looking out my window here on January 5 and I see lawn. That's not how we fill reservoirs...

 

[MACFLY]

The short term plan is to pray for snow. I'm looking out my window here on January 5 and I see lawn. That's not how we fill reservoirs...

But I have to believe they are filled at the moment..no. In any event I was asking about the status of FFMP or whatever acronym has replaced it. Wasn't there a draft document or some interim plan in place. Basically what's the latest

 

[AKSkim]

The short term plan is to pray for snow. I'm looking out my window here on January 5 and I see lawn. That's not how we fill reservoirs...

I don't get it.

What does snow have to do with filling reservoirs anyway?

I think they should just get the water they need and fill it.

Simple and easy... why didn't anyone else think of that instead of making a big fuss over nothing.

 

[MACFLY]

And you never will...Dumbass

I don't get

 

[Rusty Spinner]

Hard to imagine that with all the snow and rain we have gotten the past 13 months here in NJ that the Catskills would be in need of winter snows, but I do know that most of these storms the past year or so have stayed more east and affected NJ more than our neighbors to the north and west.

 

[flyI4]

both cannonsville and pepacton are above average in terms of capacity for this time of year. Snow fall isn't as important to the system as it is to freestone streams since snow can help extend the fishable season on a freestone through fully charged springs and acquifers, where on the tailwaters temps are rarely an issue and the system's capacity largely dictates the flow,which can be filled equally as well with either rain or snow. You also don't want to pray for too much snow. If capacity is full and there is alot of snow that needs to melt, the release will be 1500 for much of the early season, and then we will start hearing the wade fisherman complain that the season was a bust, while boat fisherman will complain that the influx of hundreds of pontoon boats has ruined the fishing. I think capacity wise, things are looking good as of now, but it will be interesting to see how the new plan develops. Hopefully the progress we saw in the last plan will continue to be applied in this one.

 

[brachycentrus]

both cannonsville and pepacton are above average in terms of capacity for this time of year. Snow fall isn't as important to the system as it is to freestone streams since snow can help extend the fishable season on a freestone through fully charged springs and acquifers, where on the tailwaters temps are rarely an issue and the system's capacity largely dictates the flow,which can be filled equally as well with either rain or snow. You also don't want to pray for too much snow. If capacity is full and there is alot of snow that needs to melt, the release will be 1500 for much of the early season, and then we will start hearing the wade fisherman complain that the season was a bust, while boat fisherman will complain that the influx of hundreds of pontoon boats has ruined the fishing. I think capacity wise, things are looking good as of now, but it will be interesting to see how the new plan develops. Hopefully the progress we saw in the last plan will continue to be applied in this one.

The FFMP hasnt changed. Same as last year, with hopefully, some adoptions from the Joint White Paper, maybe.
If we have full reservoirs with a wet spring, then it will be a repeat of last year.
If there is no snowpack and the reservoirs are depleted, then is when we get into temperature problems.
The FFMP, with release rates and revisions are posted on the DRBC and <acronym title="New York">NY</acronym> Rivermaster websites. Better yet, join <acronym title="friends of the Delaware River">FUDR</acronym>.

 

[Big_Spinner]

Hey guys, Happy New Year!!

The current thinking is that the one year plan that is now in place and expires on May 31st will be adopted with a few minor changes.

There are several items tha I would like to see incorporated, but time is short and the ability to test ideas has been diminished by the existing plan.

At a minimum I would like to see two changes to the existing FFMP/OST plan.

1: Increase East Branch releases in the summer during normal conditions by at least 50 cfs and no more than 80 cfs.

2: Create a bank of water that can be used without restriction when needed to help get us through difficult stretches of low flow or high heat.

I am afraid that the parties have been in discussion without too much input from the conservation groups. One troubling point that I have heard is that they will in fact increase summer EB releases, but at the cost of releases on the WB. For example, increase EB to 190 from 140 and decrease WB from 500 to 450. There is enough water to do both safely.

There are other items on my list, but I can only type so fast!!!!

Keep up the questions and I will always endevour to give answers.

And yes, the rivers are in great shape with great midge activity and even good streamer fishing. Alewives have come trhough the release works and the big browns have been eating them!!!

This weather has been interesting. I suspect that bugs have continued to mature through this relative warm winter and we may get early hatches in the Spring. Be ready!!!

Jim