Hi Fred,
There is an added complexity that needs to be answered.
It has always been my goal to get a plume of sub 68 degree water into the mainstem and have that plume reach as far down as possible.
The interesting thing is that the two rivers don't mix for quite aways down the river. Temperature gages at Buckingham have shown that the river is still not mixed from one side to the other. (Ever wonder why there is more activity on the PA side?)
Trying to maintain a goal of say, "don't ever let Lordville get above 68 degrees" is a very difficult thing to achieve.
I have gages that can record temperatures every 15 minutes and store several months of data. If anyone would like to help get these in the river and help to monitor them, I would be happy for the help.
I usually have gages at the junction, on both sides of the river, Stockport and Buckingham. We have good data from some years for about 15 gages scattered throughout the system.
I have always wanted someone to build a website to share this data and get data from my gages, USGS gages, PA Fisheries, NYS DEC, Park Service, etc. and share them on one site. Anybody have the expertise and cash to help with this project? The data would be extremely useful.
This weekend we should see increased temperatures again and also higher releases, so it will be a perfect time to see what the effect of those bigger releases will be.
I will have gages ready to go, if anyone is interested in throwing them in the their boat and marking where they are place with a gps unit. I can supply the gps unit also.
As the EB continues to dry up, the influence of the WB at the junction will be greater.
Bright sun and warm nights have the greatest effect on temperature the following day.
I would think that your modest goal of good temps to Cemetery or Buckingham will be met most (more that 90%) of the time with a White Paper release of 525 in the summer. But, only on the PA side of the river!
You also bring up a great point about the quantity of EB water. This has a large influence at the junction and beyond. The range of conditions may be a huge summer Montague Release of say 1000 or 1200 cfs from Cannonsville and a meager 200-300 on the EB side. The flip side may have the minimum WB release in the summer of 325 and after a good rain the EB may still be over 1000. You are absolutely correct that these two flows work together.
You and I are in violent agreement about the need for more water and if there is not a constant supply of cold water that is sufficient, then a bank needs to be established that can be used without combersome restrictions on its use.
The 420 release does an okay job on summer days when air temps don't go above 80 or so and nights cool down into the 50s.
I have argued for many years that the time which is not adequatley covered in this transition time before Montague releases kick in. We should see those releases increasesoon, although the tunnel shutdown releases may be scaled back as the reservoir level drops.
I also think it is important to monitor the inventory of cold water in the reservoir. Cannonsville as at 90% and the upper third of the reservoir is the warm, nasty water above the thermocline, so that leaves about 50 bg of the nice clear cold stuff. NYC may take some of that as a diversion, I do not know. Let's say they will take 10 bg. So we have 40 bg to play with through September. How shall we release it? That's very roughly 60,000 cfs-days of cold clear water. That could be 600 cfs for 100 days, end of story. But what about the really hot days or the days like today when 600 is more than needed. Then, what if the call for MOntague in August requires 1000 cfs per day. that uses the inventory up more quickly. The point I am getting at is this:
FFMP provides the mechanism to make these decisions based on daily conditions. The matrix just needs to be filled in with the proper numbers and tweaked as new information becomes available.
Can we say that a release of 800 from Cannonsville is enough to satisfy the temperature requirements on the mainstem all the time? That to use more than that would deplete the inventory too quickly?
Can we cap the release at 800 so even if the Montague need is more, it is not released? I think we can, but that is another fight.
So, if 800 is enough, then on a day like today, maybe 420 is enough to satisfy the temps. So, we can bank the balance for another day.
And how low do you go? Maybe 300 is enough for today.
FFMP created a new minimum release that was much higher than Rev 7.
What is the minimum release you are comfortable with on the West Branch through the summer?
If your minimum is high enough (see 800 above) then may, no bank is needed. BUT, what happens when you run out of water?
Banks to try to meet temperature targets are very diffcult to manage successfully. IF the sun some out when it was not predicted, the temps will soar.
We should be working for as large a minimum release as possible with a bank of water that can help when needed. The larger the minimum, the smaller the bank needs to be.
As an aside, the tunnel shutdown program is beneficial, not only because there is more waer in the sytem, but it also is demonstrating that there can be larger releases withou risk to NYC.
Well, that was more than enough said,
Jim
Lee Hartman usually has a gage at his house about halfway between Stockport and Buckingham.
