Crest of 1800 cfs

[jcstikfish]

Is the over/under.

Place your bets.

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwisweb/graph?agency_cd=USGS&site_no=01396500&parm_cd=00060&period=7#.UbJjF6H0JiY.email

~James

 

[jcstikfish]

Its 699 right now, but based on radar, and ground saturation, I'm going to say OVER. Hoping for under.

~James

 

[thrashers.wheat]

I'd place a bet on you have a future as a bookie if your daytime job doesn't work out.

I'd guess over, too. The radar loop projects us being hit by this entire storm front. Two weekends ago we received about 1.5" of precip and it waxed at over 1,100 cfs.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

I'd place a bet on you have a future as a bookie if your daytime job doesn't work out.

I'd guess over, too. The radar loop projects us being hit by this entire storm front. Two weekends ago we received about 1.5" of precip and it waxed at over 1,100 cfs.

What few folks understand about the other weekend and the SBR gauge at High Bridge is that we had 5 1/2" of rain in the headwaters while most of the state only got 1" - 2". That is the sole reason that the gauges went over 1,000 cfs. I live here where the SBR is still just a trickle of a WTS and my neighbor keeps his rain gauge current at all times. Right now, the Musky is "only" 558 cfs, but climbing steadily. The SBR gauge is already over 900 cfs.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

Looks like the under. Getting close to cresting at 1050 cfs, but not yet peak. Hard to imagine much more than 1200 by late tonight. Good news is we just bought another week or two plus of trout fishing.

 

[CTobias]

Not going to hit 1800 unless the rainfall after is very significant. Look at the curve. Already coming down.

 

[thrashers.wheat]

Few folks understand? Quite simple to understand how more rainfall upstream can influence a downstream gage. I assumed the area 15 miles north of where I live rec'd. similar weather. I do find it tough to believe, however, that your area received 5.5" when the area I live in received 1.5" (12-15 mile difference).

What few folks understand about the other weekend and the SBR gauge at High Bridge is that we had 5 1/2" of rain in the headwaters while most of the state only got 1" - 2". That is the sole reason that the gauges went over 1,000 cfs. I live here where the SBR is still just a trickle of a WTS and my neighbor keeps his rain gauge current at all times. Right now, the Musky is "only" 558 cfs, but climbing steadily. The SBR gauge is already over 900 cfs.

 

[thrashers.wheat]

what most folks don't understand is Budd Lake-effect weather haha

What few folks understand about the other weekend and the SBR gauge at High Bridge is that we had 5 1/2" of rain in the headwaters while most of the state only got 1" - 2". That is the sole reason that the gauges went over 1,000 cfs. I live here where the SBR is still just a trickle of a WTS and my neighbor keeps his rain gauge current at all times. Right now, the Musky is "only" 558 cfs, but climbing steadily. The SBR gauge is already over 900 cfs.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

Few folks understand? Quite simple to understand how more rainfall upstream can influence a downstream gage. I assumed the area 15 miles north of where I live rec'd. similar weather. I do find it tough to believe, however, that your area received 5.5" when the area I live in received 1.5" (12-15 mile difference).

I felt the same way and was shocked how high the gauge went after only 2" of rain until some of my neighbors and I were having a cold beer or three at my neighbor's fire pit and some of them like my next door neighbor got 5"+ of rain in their rain gauges. My mother-in-law has a rain gauge and she got just over 2" in that storm down in Hillsborough near the Raritan River. You can see this morning that even with whatever big rains we got yesterday and last night, the SBR gauge didn't get as high as the other weekend.

Localized rain events are common in NJ. The upper northwest Musky watershed and upper Wallkill watershed got a 16" rain event back in August 2000 while most of the state got less than 1/2". That event blew out two dams on the Musky trib, Lubber's Run, and destroyed the Sparta Glen when Sparta Glen Brook raged liked the mighty Yellowstone instead of the 4' wide stream it normally is. It happens. That was the event that led our Partnership 8 years later to remove the Gruendyke and Seber dams on the mainstem of the Musky because suddenly Dam Safety was paying attention to dams in the watershed after that freak '00 event.

 

[JeffK]

Rain fall is widely variable both by average, season, and event. That's why I always check the USGS gauges before going far to fish. I remember the 00 flood well. We got a 1" fall in Hackettstown and the East Ave bridge was underwater. Took a while to sink in how bad the storm upstream was. The mountain effect is big too. Even in Hackettstown. H'town has 55" average rainfall while the rest of NJ is 40 something. The Poconos and Catskills have way more strange effects. A couple of years ago the Catskills had a decent storm, but it pushed against Wildcat Mtn where 8" fell causing the highway to Downsville to wash out. Rain events can be very local.

Of course, the upper SBR is very spiky too. Development in Rusty's environmentally challenged home town runs off quickly causing the SBR to go up very quickly, but come down quickly as well.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

what most folks don't understand is Budd Lake-effect weather haha

Budd Lake is a spring-fed natural lake. There is no "Budd Lake effect". Whatever comes in goes right back out. There is no dam to manipulate flows like on the Musky, Pequannock, etc. Like JeffK said, Mount Olive has built up quite a bit as has Long Valley (Washington Twp.) and all that rain flashes off the pavement and roofs and hits the river quickly. Add fairly steep slopes for NJ and we see flashy rises every time it rains.

 

[thrashers.wheat]

I was making a joke. Like Lake Ontario's lake-effect weather patterns. Budd Lake-effect weather patterns causing the surge of rainfall you claim your neighbor observed just off Budd Lake that was not experienced where I live, just south of you.

I was making a joke at it changing the weather pattern, not the flows.

Budd Lake is a spring-fed natural lake. There is no "Budd Lake effect". Whatever comes in goes right back out. There is no dam to manipulate flows like on the Musky, Pequannock, etc. Like JeffK said, Mount Olive has built up quite a bit as has Long Valley (Washington Twp.) and all that rain flashes off the pavement and roofs and hits the river quickly. Add fairly steep slopes for NJ and we see flashy rises every time it rains.