Late Hatch Prediction

[Trout Nazi]

Huh. Okay, but what I'm saying is, the Hendrickson hatch last year actually went on for many weeks past what the hatch chart says, and not just below the dams. It was a regular topic of conversation on the river and in the shop.. the Hendrickson hatch that never ends...

And for that matter, most spring hatches last year were late, and some hatches that are supposed to occur weeks apart coincided, creating a bug soup situation. It was a crazy, crazy year up there.

But every year has a little crazy. The year before, everything was a bit early. That's part of the fun of it. My favorite years are the ones when I keep finding hatches all summer long that are supposed to be done, in places where the fish aren't supposed to be holding, much less rising. Keeps it interesting.

But look, I totally agree with your last sentence. A size 12 or 14 comparadun will also work in all kinds of hatches if you fish it right. For the lazy, the One Bug doesn't end in late april, it lasts all year long, and I'm lazy as fuck.

I agree, not trying to start a pissing match (you guys know the system way better than me), but for someone who's new up there, we can make their heads spin with what flies to fish when. One time in the fall I was fishing a Hex spinner fall at Long Eddy, I can't even believe I had a spinner that big on me at the time (I had just 1, guys I was fishing with were SOL, but I let them have a few casts with mine). I tie a variation of a rusty spinner that floats well, is visible, and generally covers just about everything. That's my lazy-man fly when I don't want to get all fucking matchy-hatchy.

 

[mudbug201]

What's your rusty spinner pattern? hard to find one that floats and is visible and works well. I don't tie, but sometimes I think they overdo the poly or snowshoe wings.. the sparse ones seem to catch more fish.

by the way, my cousin gave me a handful of size 14 spinners with a day-glo parachute post last year, and my first thought was, "this was really dumb", because it looked so odd, and you usually see parachutes on low sitting dries or emergers, but it made the spinners much more visible in the dark, and didn't seem to turn off the fish at all. If i tied, I'd spin some up this spring.

 

[Rusty Spinner]

Two years ago. Floated the lower EB on April 28 and 29 and had great days on MB dries and nymphs. I'm always up there the last weekend in April, and I usually hit the very beginning of the March Brown hatch. But that's on the lower EB, where water temps are higher.

But the larger point is, no point in trying to say exactly when hatches will start and finish beforehand.

Here's a question: when did the Hendrickson hatch end last year? Were they still hatching in late June?

Fishing those imitations doesn't mean that is what was hatching. You likely saw Quill Gordons at that time of year, certainly not March Browns. I don't care how warm the water was. And yes, last year was a very cold, snowy late winter that held off the hatches at least a week or ten days, if not more. This year is on the slightly early side so far. No surprise with a warm, relatively low snow winter.

 

[moosekid]

Fishing those imitations doesn't mean that is what was hatching. You likely saw Quill Gordons at that time of year, certainly not March Browns. I don't care how warm the water was. And yes, last year was a very cold, snowy late winter that held off the hatches at least a week or ten days, if not more. This year is on the slightly early side so far. No surprise with a warm, relatively low snow winter.

seems a bit arrogant to assume that your week of getting skunked @ the dreamcatcher every season qualifies you to discount the opinion of someone who lives on the river and fishes it all season long.

also for what it's worth -- mudbug's 7 year old son is a wiz with bug ID it's very impressive. maybe the mom is teaching him tho, and mudbug doesn't know shit...

 

[mudbug201]

seems a bit arrogant to assume that your week of getting skunked @ the dreamcatcher every season qualifies you to discount the opinion of someone who lives on the river and fishes it all season long.

also for what it's worth -- mudbug's 7 year old son is a wiz with bug ID it's very impressive. maybe the mom is teaching him tho, and mudbug doesn't know shit...

ah go easy on him kid. He's just a flatlander trying to be helpful. and authoritative. mostly authoritative.

rusty... there were march browns in the air, on the water, in the mouths of the giant trout I was catching...

If you don't believe me, ask my buddy who was fishing with. He was runner-up for Orvis guide of the year in 2018.

Kid, the arrogance that concerns me is not toward me or my 8 year-old, but toward nature, in all its unpredictability. If mayflies and trout did as the books say, this shit wouldn't be any fun at all.

 

[Trout Nazi]

ah go easy on him kid. He's just a flatlander trying to be helpful. and authoritative. mostly authoritative.

rusty... there were march browns in the air, on the water, in the mouths of the giant trout I was catching...

If you don't believe me, ask my buddy who was fishing with. He was runner-up for Orvis guide of the year in 2018.

Kid, the arrogance that concerns me is not toward me or my 8 year-old, but toward nature, in all its unpredictability. If mayflies and trout did as the books say, this shit wouldn't be any fun at all.

The guide of the year runner-up is a solid dude, I would recommend him to anyone.

 

[MACFLY]

ah go easy on him kid. He's just a flatlander trying to be helpful. and authoritative. mostly authoritative.

rusty... there were march browns in the air, on the water, in the mouths of the giant trout I was catching...

If you don't believe me, ask my buddy who was fishing with. He was runner-up for Orvis guide of the year in 2018.

Kid, the arrogance that concerns me is not toward me or my 8 year-old, but toward nature, in all its unpredictability. If mayflies and trout did as the books say, this shit wouldn't be any fun at all.

I agree nature is unpredictable which is why climate change is such bullshit

Sorry couldn’t resist. And rusty is a boob..an authoritative boob but still a boob.

 

[Trout Nazi]

I agree nature is unpredictable which is why climate change is such bullshit

Sorry couldn’t resist. And rusty is a boob..an authoritative boob but still a boob.

No, climate change is real. The Earths climate has been changing since the Earth was formed, and it will keep on changing long after we're gone. The continents will keep on drifting, the oceans will keep on rising and falling. We are just pimples on Natures ass, and eventually she'll just pop us. Now the real art form is how to spin all this, get in on it, and make some $$$ like everyone else is doing.