Big_Spinner said:

Hi Joe,

Of course we can debate the data.

Check out the attached graph for one of the years you chose to show.

If there were any trout to start the summer after 40 cfs for most of the month of May, there probably were not many left when the release dropped to less than 30 cfs for most of October and November.

By the way, Rio and Wallenpaupack were in operation through the 1990's. One thing that tends to happen is both of those reservoirs run out of available water during the summer and stop producing power. That is when the Directed releases from Cannonsville really get cranking.

The other complete year profiles have similar killer low flows.

Checkout last years flow profile. The other attached graph. Really nice until the end of the year when things dried up, but only down to 100 cfs. 100 cfs, is not good, certainly, but a bunch better than 45 or 30 cfs.

Jim

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Big_Spinner said:

Hi Joe,

I think these two statements need some clarification:

If you compare the previous 5 years below to the 5 years I pulled from the late 90's it obvious to anyone that we had more water in the summer back than.

This is mostly due to random chance and different weather conditions than because of any sort of flow plan. IF you swapped plans for each five year period, the 1990's would be improved by the FFMP regime. There would be no low dips and the minimum flow would be 400 or 500 instead of the 325 that was in place in the 1990s. You are correct that the Montague releases would be a bit lower on the WB, but NOT for the reason that you give. They would be lower because under FFMP there is already more water coming down the system. More water on the WB as well as more on the EB and Neversink which would also count towards Montague. As a guess, if the Rivermaster needed 1000 cfs, there would already be 740 cfs of water coming down under FFMP, so call for water would be 260 cfs. Under the 1990's plan, there would be 325+95+53= 473 of flow from the plan and the rivermaster would need to call for an additional 527. So, Cannonsville releases would be 92 cfs less under FFMP because that 92 cfs would be made up by the larger EB and Neversink releases.

Also make sure to look at the scale of flow. The last 5 years under FFMP we were seldom under 400 cfs on the WB during the summer.

I know that the down river water sources have been around a long time, however it wasn't until 2005 when PPL was approved to be re-licensed by FERC that the releases down the Lackawaxen where used to satisfy Montaque ??

This is just not true. Lackawaxen power releases have counted towards the 1750 target, I think since their inception. Certainly since 1980.

jim

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flyI4 said:

[MAJORITY of text snipped due to Park Service surveillance. Drones overhead.] ...15 years later we have a pro main stem crowd because those same people got pissed the wb got crowded and started casting blind Iso's and smoking weed at dark eddy when the po po and park service wasn't going to snag them (unless u were riding with moose). TR will attest to most of this I'm sure.

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TR said:

You get the minus because you forgot to mention Mr. Lee Kwon Doo of Flushing with a burgeoning tilapia venture on Big Island south of Callicoon on the Main Stem about four years ago where they dug eight pits without any NYS DEC mining permits and strung wire across the pits so eagles and other birds wouldn't eat the fish much to USF&W dismay.

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flyI4 said:

Jim,

The FFMP has been tough on the main IMO for several reasons, some of which are not directly flow related but nonetheless have had direct negative consequences on the main. First, the low FFMP spring time flow requirements in an attempt to conserve water for summer flows have really condensed the season on the main because we are seeing warmer springs. Unless the system is chock full of water and a 1500 release/spillage occurs, the wb is going to run under 300 cfs in april and may. This causes the main to rely heavily on freestone flow from the bkill/ebranch and even on a decent water year leaves the main in that 1000-1500 cfs range most springs. A few days in the 80s which is normal for spring now and the main starts creeping up to upper 60s by early/mid may. These early season warmups have really hurt the hatch activity on the main and you see the hatches accelerate and few bugs coming off by late may. This year proves that as have the past few. The bug life on the mainstem is the worst I've ever seen in my time fishing the system.
The common sub 300 cfs springtime flows on the wb have also caused a dramatic increase in pressure on the mainstem because the wb is not floatable or barely floatable most springs. The upper main to buckingham has become a joke the past 5 years, which admittedly is in part due to just an increase in boats in general, but also in part bc the west branch is too low to float for much of the early spring unless we have 100% capacity/spillage. The fish are getting absolutely pounded on the upper main to the point the fish have mouth's that look like the wb no kill fish. Many Guides are going where the water is though and the closest float to town- to shehawken to buck it is.
Also, the summertime flows on the wb are steady under the FFMP, but overall lower most days during the summer months under the FFMP. The main used to actually benefit from the yo yo flows and 750cfs+ flows on the wb during the summer prior to the FFMP and the main would stay cool/have hatches for much of the late spring/early summer and sometimes even late summer. Now, with the 400 release on the wb for much of the summer, the main is consistently low, upper 60s/70s for the whole summer and few hatches because the water is too warm. Daytime summer sulphers are a non-existent thing on the main and I remember hitting them along with cahils for much for much of the summer and fog coming off the main in july from cool water temps. Yes, sometimes the main would get very low when the yo yo flows caused a sudden drop, but this was usually short lived and the majority of the summer was higher releases out of the wb and better fishing down on the main for a longer portion of the season.

Again- I think the FFMP is the best option we have seen for the wb. It keeps the river in better shape for the entire season(including winter) than past plans. My point is that whats good for wb under the FFMP is not good for the main.The main doesnt have winter flow issues and only runs into issues from may-early sept. Therefore, the wb could be managed like garbage for 9 months of the year and the main would still thrive so long as water was let out at over 500 cfs for most of the Mid May-Early Sept window.Under the ffmp 400 cfs out of the dam for most of the summer(unless we have montague releases like last year) most keeps the wb in great shape all summer and doesnt stress the fish with up and down flows in a matter of hours, but keeps the main fairly warm and near 70 just a few pools down from the junction since there will be warm and low flows coming in from the eb just about every summer. The low and consistently low flows for april/may (and this year june) also leave the main susceptible to warmer flows that do not let up for any significant period in a warm spring like this year.

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flyI4 said:

Jim,

The FFMP has been tough on the main IMO for several reasons, some of which are not directly flow related but nonetheless have had direct negative consequences on the main. First, the low FFMP spring time flow requirements in an attempt to conserve water for summer flows have really condensed the season on the main because we are seeing warmer springs. Unless the system is chock full of water and a 1500 release/spillage occurs, the wb is going to run under 300 cfs in april and may. This causes the main to rely heavily on freestone flow from the bkill/ebranch and even on a decent water year leaves the main in that 1000-1500 cfs range most springs. A few days in the 80s which is normal for spring now and the main starts creeping up to upper 60s by early/mid may. These early season warmups have really hurt the hatch activity on the main and you see the hatches accelerate and few bugs coming off by late may. This year proves that as have the past few. The bug life on the mainstem is the worst I've ever seen in my time fishing the system.
The common sub 300 cfs springtime flows on the wb have also caused a dramatic increase in pressure on the mainstem because the wb is not floatable or barely floatable most springs. The upper main to buckingham has become a joke the past 5 years, which admittedly is in part due to just an increase in boats in general, but also in part bc the west branch is too low to float for much of the early spring unless we have 100% capacity/spillage. The fish are getting absolutely pounded on the upper main to the point the fish have mouth's that look like the wb no kill fish. Many Guides are going where the water is though and the closest float to town- to shehawken to buck it is.
Also, the summertime flows on the wb are steady under the FFMP, but overall lower most days during the summer months under the FFMP. The main used to actually benefit from the yo yo flows and 750cfs+ flows on the wb during the summer prior to the FFMP and the main would stay cool/have hatches for much of the late spring/early summer and sometimes even late summer. Now, with the 400 release on the wb for much of the summer, the main is consistently low, upper 60s/70s for the whole summer and few hatches because the water is too warm. Daytime summer sulphers are a non-existent thing on the main and I remember hitting them along with cahils for much of the summer and fog coming off the main in july from cool water temps. Yes, sometimes the main would get very low when the yo yo flows caused a sudden drop, but this was usually short lived and the majority of the summer was higher releases out of the wb and better fishing down on the main for a longer portion of the season.

Again- I think the FFMP is the best option we have seen for the wb. It keeps the river in better shape for the entire season(including winter) than past plans. My point is that whats good for wb under the FFMP is not good for the main.The main doesnt have winter flow issues and only runs into issues from may-early sept. Therefore, the wb could be managed like garbage for 9 months of the year and the main would still thrive so long as water was let out at over 500 cfs for most of the Mid May-Early Sept window.Under the ffmp 400 cfs out of the dam for most of the summer(unless we have montague releases like last year)keeps the wb in great shape all summer and doesnt stress the fish with up and down flows in a matter of hours, but keeps the main fairly warm and near 70 just a few pools down from the junction since there will be warm and low flows coming in from the eb just about every summer. The low and consistently low flows for april/may (and this year june) also leave the main susceptible to warmer flows that do not let up for any significant period in a warm spring like this year.

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Big_Spinner said:

Hi Fred,
OK... no one's happy with what we had or what we got... Here's the new flow plan....

250CFS Cannonsville release April 1 to May 15th (more if required to keep Hale at least 450 CFS and/or Hancock temp below peak of 65 degrees F).

From May 15 to June 15th, Cannonsville release of 350 CFS (more if required to keep Hale at least 450 CFS and/or Hancock below peak of 65 degrees).

June 15th to August 15th, Cannonsville release of 500 CFS (more if required to keep Hancock below peak of 65 degrees).

August 15th to Nov 15th - 250 CFS (more if required to keep Hale at 350 CFS and/or Hancock below 65 degree peak)

October 15th to December 1 end of year 200 CFS. Winter.. dunno.

This is your proposed flow plan.

Has some good points to it.

A couple of questions.

Do you want to maintain this under any conditions? Dry years vs Wet years?

Stop in the office sometime and we will run it in OASIS and see how things look.

One of the problems that is inherent in your plan, WHO is going to run it? NYS DEC wanted out of managing plans for flow and temperature. Do you trust NYC to do it? The DRBC?

Once you figure that out, where does the money come from?

I think that FFMP performed better than your plan would have last year.

There were only a few days that Hancock approached a max temp of 65.

Jim

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Big_Spinner said:

Hi Joe,

Economy is down this year for Hancock and I would expect Deposit too. The low flows have certainly hurt the fishing industry. So what is your point? We need more water, we all know that. FFMP is not to blame.

Hatches are down this year. I think contributing factors were the low flows in the winter and the brutal cold. It was a double wammy. My guess is that half of the river bottom was frozen solid this past winter. Silt may be a contributing factor.

Reports of very few 1 and 2 year fish on the upper WB would also indicate a rough winter with little cover.

Silt: Twenty years ago the upper WB was like a spring creek. Lots of grass beds in muddy bottom. The 2006 flood took all of that away. Heck, even the mud flats in front of our house are not mud flats anymore. This may be the river just naturally filling those areas back in, since we have not had any good flushing flows the last couple of years. I do not know. What are your thoughts?

What do you all think a "flushing flow" on the WB needs to be to get rid of the silt? Or do we want to get rid of it?

Jim

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