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the drought that wont end

flyI4

flyI4

Fishizzle, I use worms but I'm looking to upgrade!
Looking at the gauges, and res levels for tailwaters, its insane how long the rivers have been running low in the tri-state area. We are into November now without a turn around in drought conditions and now we are looking at Cannonsville res having a 25% capacity heading into winter. That type of deficit will not be made up with snow- it will take rain and right now we are dangerously close to winter without having made a dent in the deficit. Add in the fact that rivers like the beaverkill are running at a pathetic 60 cfs, and have for 5 months, and u have a scary situation where fish are pooled up and really unable to spawn in any tribs that enter the rivers. We need a wet week, or three, to turn this drought around, and I dont see that happening. Scary stuff looking ahead to next year with res levels so low and unlikely to be fully replenished by next April.
 
According to Donald Trump, he's going to make fly fishing in the Catskills great again.

Don't you worry
 
Trout Guy said:
According to Donald Trump, he's going to make fly fishing in the Catskills great again.

Don't you worry
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just saw the news tonight and this winters predictions dont look much better for relieving the drought. The world is in bad shape
 
Right now the Cannonsville is at 18%.

I disagree that the snow wont be enough.I've seen this before.Back in December of 2001 the Cannonsville was drawn down to 3%.

That winter we had about a 6 foot snow pack in the mountains.Adding to that having an average rainfall in March and April resulted in the Cannonsville spilling.

Just last week Walton got 15 inches of snow,more in the higher elevations.

It is predicted by some that the Northeast will have a wet snowy winter from El Niño transitioning to La Niña.

It's way to early predict how good or bad things will be like this spring, let mother nature take its course..This isn't the first drought nor will it be the last.

It was worse in 85/86

Here is what 2002 on the WB was in April after being at 3% in December of 2001.Part of it was from spilling.

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/mont...=file&submitted_form=parameter_selection_list

Below the image is a Prediction based on going into a La Niña pattern this winter.BTW a La Niña pattern usually results in a wet spring and summer.

The DEC and a Biologist with a group of interns from one of the universities where on the WB about a month ago.All of the no kill and Stilesvillle where checked for Redds.it was determined that no damage was done to any of the Redds when they dropped the WB to almost nothing for a short period of time and from the extreme YO YO Releases going on than.I'm trying to get my hands on the report if I do I'll post it here.
 

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Hi Joe,

I agree it is too early to predict the water future.

But, you know with me there is always at least one but.

2002 did nearly refill, but it did not spill.

The thing that puts the rivers in a bad way is the requirement that keeps the rivers in drought designation longer than the rest of the system. Because we now have a basin declared drought the releases are severely restricted. Those restrictions will not be lifted until the reservoirs get to 25 billion gallons above the drought watch line and stay above that line for 15 consecutive days. Typically we will now stay below that line until spring run off in April or even May. That means that Reservoir releases will be critically low through spring. This means that as long as we are below that critical line, the releases on the WB will be no better than 55 cfs until May 1, 85 cfs in May and 135 cfs in the summer. The other reservoirs will also be critically low. Pepacton will be 45, 60 and 75 respectively.

Before FFMP, the drought releases for Cannonsville were 8 cfs in the winter and 23 cfs in the summer. This was the situation we were in during the Spring of 2002. Cannonsville release was 8 cfs and was scheduled to increase to 23 cfs on June 1st. We were still not above that 25 billion gallons above drought watch for 15 consecutive days line. IT was a very scary time. Stilesville did not get above 50 cfs until mid June!!! Think about that for a minute. Luckily, as you mentioned, it was a fairly wet spring in 2002. This helped keep the rivers at relatively safe levels, except of course for the sections directly below the dams. Even with FFMP now, although we will have some improvement, the rivers will still be critically low.
 
Hey Jim

I understand and agree with everything your saying.Back than it was a totally different plan and we didn't have "voids" that where needed post flood's.

I'm an optimist and I really believe that transitioning into a La Nina will help greatly.With a good snow pack and at least average rainfall in March and April we should be in good shape.

The good news is as I write this the rivers are full and there is more water coming into the reservoirs than out.it's a start.Lets hope for a lot of snow!

Thanks for your input

Joe T



QUOTE=Big_Spinner;257169]Hi Joe,

I agree it is too early to predict the water future.

But, you know with me there is always at least one but.

2002 did nearly refill, but it did not spill.

The thing that puts the rivers in a bad way is the requirement that keeps the rivers in drought designation longer than the rest of the system. Because we now have a basin declared drought the releases are severely restricted. Those restrictions will not be lifted until the reservoirs get to 25 billion gallons above the drought watch line and stay above that line for 15 consecutive days. Typically we will now stay below that line until spring run off in April or even May. That means that Reservoir releases will be critically low through spring. This means that as long as we are below that critical line, the releases on the WB will be no better than 55 cfs until May 1, 85 cfs in May and 135 cfs in the summer. The other reservoirs will also be critically low. Pepacton will be 45, 60 and 75 respectively.

Before FFMP, the drought releases for Cannonsville were 8 cfs in the winter and 23 cfs in the summer. This was the situation we were in during the Spring of 2002. Cannonsville release was 8 cfs and was scheduled to increase to 23 cfs on June 1st. We were still not above that 25 billion gallons above drought watch for 15 consecutive days line. IT was a very scary time. Stilesville did not get above 50 cfs until mid June!!! Think about that for a minute. Luckily, as you mentioned, it was a fairly wet spring in 2002. This helped keep the rivers at relatively safe levels, except of course for the sections directly below the dams. Even with FFMP now, although we will have some improvement, the rivers will still be critically low.[/QUOTE]
 
Rusty Spinner said:
This site is so dead, we'll take anything we can get these days....even another post about GB magazine:crap:
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GB MAGAZINE!!??!!

I thought that fizzled...

How've YOU been? Killed your share of critters this fall?

Is Cabarle dead? I don't read the obits from down your way... Haven't seen a post from him in ages...
 
Future Fanatic said:
GB MAGAZINE!!??!!

I thought that fizzled...

How've YOU been? Killed your share of critters this fall?

Is Cabarle dead? I don't read the obits from down your way... Haven't seen a post from him in ages...
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We had a very small camp of only 3 of us this year. We had an 8, a 6 and a 5 point all down and back in camp hanging from the barn by 10 am on opening day. Were in town by noon for some hot wings and beer and then just hung out at camp and watched the snow fly that night after it being 67 and sunny Saturday afternoon. Best camp ever. I got fairly near your place on the way home. I don't think I've gone the same way twice up there for reasons only known to Sally, my GPS. I really like it up that way!
 
Rusty Spinner said:
We had a very small camp of only 3 of us this year. We had an 8, a 6 and a 5 point all down and back in camp hanging from the barn by 10 am on opening day. Were in town by noon for some hot wings and beer and then just hung out at camp and watched the snow fly that night after it being 67 and sunny Saturday afternoon. Best camp ever. I got fairly near your place on the way home. I don't think I've gone the same way twice up there for reasons only known to Sally, my GPS. I really like it up that way!
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What neck of the woods were you in?
The place you had told me about before?
Well, congratulations.
You should look into getting you own piece of heaven as a base camp for fishing the Ds in spring and summer and hunting in the fall.

My gps is "Tilly". Weird. Maybe they can meet when you are back this way someday.
 
Did the NY reservoirs get snow or mostly rain like we did here in northwest NJ? Hopefully you're getting a decent amount of snow cover. Our flows here are still pitiful. We need all the moisture we can get - rain, snow or ice!
 
Future Fanatic said:
What neck of the woods were you in?
The place you had told me about before?
Well, congratulations.
You should look into getting you own piece of heaven as a base camp for fishing the Ds in spring and summer and hunting in the fall.

My gps is "Tilly". Weird. Maybe they can meet when you are back this way someday.
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Yup, Garrattsville/Burlington Flats area on my buddy's farm. There is a fallow farm adjacent to his that I would LOVE to buy one day. Many of our deer bed on that property and it is lightly hunted if at all. But I'm still getting my new business up and running and then have to ship a kid off to college, so buying the farm is a long way off (hopefully both literally and figuratively). But I did roll through your town on the way home that Sunday with a buck jammed in the trunk of my Camry. :)
 
Rusty Spinner said:
Did the NY reservoirs get snow or mostly rain like we did here in northwest NJ? Hopefully you're getting a decent amount of snow cover. Our flows here are still pitiful. We need all the moisture we can get - rain, snow or ice!
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More than 2 weeks ago Walton got about 15 inches, probably 18 plus in the higher terrain.The storm we got yesterday not sure but I have to assume they got 6-8 inches maybe more since I got 5 and I'm well south and east of Walton.The other Reservoirs benefited as well.

There was rain after the Big snow so we had some snow melt as well.The Cannonsville went from about 18% to 27.7% since than.More lake affect snow up there this weekend.Could be significant.

Its a start but a good one.
 
Good news, JOE.T. That's a good bump for Cannonsville in a short time! Looks like we're seeing a wetter pattern lately, so let's hope that sticks around for a bunch of months.
 
Walton Snow pack plus some more Data.

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interact...016&em=12&ed=21&eh=6&data=0&units=0&region=us

Walton coming into the Reservoir is going vertical (2340 CFS) so far.The Bkill and West Branch are going vertical as well which is great since they will not need to call for water ( a release to meet the Montaque target) for a while.They have not had to call for water from Cannonsville since about 11/28.Just simply means more water into the Reservoir than out.great start since its still late fall.

I'm predicting Cannonsville at 40% by 1/1/2017 right now it's at 26.4.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ny/nwis/uv/?site_no=01423000&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060

Jim question for you, during a drought or drought warning will they look at Trenton as opposed to Montaque ? Sounds logical since that is the last "barrier" for salt incursion. However I know not everything is logical; when it comes to the flow plans. Thanks JOE.T
 
babyblue said:
West@Walton up to 1000 again. Looks like Joe might be right. 33% as of today!
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I think I'll fall short of my 40% guess.I anticipated more snow melt when it warmed up.it was 34% last night ,Probably end up with 36% by the 1st.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml

Helluva lot better than 3% in 01/02 and when this thread started it was around 17%.

Its snowing now every inch we get helps,than of course at least an average rainfall in March and April.

JOE T
 
With the rain and snow melt 2 days ago the Reservoirs had another nice inflow of water, still coming in above average.Walton is still coming in around 1600 cfs (Into Cannonsville) East Branch inflow into Pepacton is still coming at 857 cfs. Need more snow though.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml

2 months ago the Cannonsville was at 17% now AT 41.5% Total capacity for all reservoirs are now at 69% the norm is 87%
 
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