=Snow Survey - NYC DEP: 2/6/14=

[TR]

Good morning.

Attached is a NYC DEP snow survey which is compiled every three weeks for locations around the New York City reservoirs in the Catskills and Delaware River system.

The last survey was taken on February 6th prior to two storm events (2/13 and 2/15) that will have added anywhere from 18 to 24+ inches to the data.

As you can see there are areas in the Neversink and Pepacton drainage at high elevations of close to 2000 feet - say, near Frost Valley / Denning / Slide Mountain that had 17 inches prior to this week so it's conceivable that many areas will have in excess of 35 to 40 inches of snow when the next snow is recorded at the end of this month.

How does this compare to last year - 2013?

We have almost 2 to 2.5X the snowpack.at the current time versus NYC DEP snowpack studies for mid February with possibly 4 to 6 more weeks of winter and maybe two or three more storms. Plus - the river and shoreline did not have the amount of ice that we have at present which will dilute the river as it thaws keeping it colder and higher.

How does this compare to 2012?

There was virtually no snowpack in late February and the hatches that I recorded were a month early with Hendricksons beginning in late March and the Main Stem water temps I have recorded were on 4/20/12:
58 to 64 degrees at 3.2 near Long Eddy. The Hendrickson showed from late March to early April and by the middle of April the caddis were finished.

Tight lines,
TR

 

[Trout Nazi]

Snowpack doesn't matter, we don't live in the Rockies or high mountains where they get real snow and have an actual runoff season. What matters here is temperature and precipitation in whatever form it comes.

 

[TR]

Snowpack doesn't matter, we don't live in the Rockies or high mountains where they get real snow and have an actual runoff season...

Good morning.

"Snowpack doesn't matter"?

This must be a troll, but I'll take the bait.

Since I don't know your name and I want to avoid using a fascist moniker regardless of its intention, I'll just use: TN.

TN, in the spring of 2012, the Catskills, which are in New York state and have relatively high elevations of 1500 to 2000+ feet to compared to say - Rahway , received very little snowfall throughout the winter thus there was not much runoff in the spring, most of gone by February, leading to low water levels and water temperatures in the low 60's by late March.

Note the word relative.

Our highway crews were already ditching town roads by late February. Forsythia blossomed in late March about a month early for the Catskills and Hendrickson and Paraleps also hatched a month early (2012: late March) as did Apple Caddis and Grannom.(2012: mid April)

The river levels were low and clear which led to warming water since there was very little water in the tribs and no ice or snow to dilute the river to keep it colder with more volume.

Obviously, New York City DEP considers snowpack around their land and water at Cannonsville, Pepacton, Neversink, Ashokan and Schoharie a big deal when it comes to hydrologic studies as well as gauging capacities of their reservoirs which service seven million people-- that's why they take data every three weeks at over fifty locations.

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What matters here is temperature and precipitation in whatever form it comes.

TN, where exactly is "here"?

Rahway? Roscoe? The whole northeast?

No doubt that above normal precipitation, and cooler air temps, are critical throughout a northeast season- spring, summer and fall - for cooler water, better acquatic insect hatching and coldwater species when talking about a freestone - or a tailwater, which, like the UDR is managed unfortunately, at times, like a freestone, eventhough the NYC has plenty of water in reserve during summer months.

However, in my opinion, and you should also ask other guides, outfitters, retailers and fishery biologists whether a healthy Catskill / Pocono snowpack / ice like we have at present are just as important for a sustained and longer coldwater season where specific hatches might possibly last longer and river / stream temperatures will certainly stay below 70 for longer than usual.

This year, if you drive up to DeBruce, Mongaup, Little Pond, Halls Mills - I think you'll see freestone tribs running cold and full regardless if it's a "normal" spring.

And, that's due to the current snowpack. which has accumulated due to colder than average air temperatures this winter.

Related:
http://www.pressconnects.com/articl...Snow-way-Area-has-recorded-79-inches-snow-far

Kind regards and tight lines,
TR

 

[tomfly]

I agree with TN, it is not the snow pack that is important. What matters is the rate of the melt. If you have a slow melt and minimal run off it is beneficial to maintain ground water levels. This in turn maintains a healthy spring system and stabilizes stream levels. If you get a rapid warming with a substantial rain fall that causes a quick melt. All the water in the snow will do nothing for the rivers and streams in late spring to early summer.

 

[TR]

I agree with TN, it is not the snow pack that is important.

Really?

What happens if you have no snowpack during a northeast winter or whatever snow you had was finished by late February as happened in 2012?

There is no cover since the ground is rock solid from freezing air temps causing no water absorption.

Plus, as stated above, the ecosystem begins earlier and the coldwater fishing season becomes shorter.

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What matters is the rate of the melt.

What melt?

You and TN just said that snowpack is not important. See above.

If you have a slow melt and minimal run off it is beneficial to maintain ground water levels. This in turn maintains a healthy spring system and stabilizes stream levels.

No kidding.

That's the perfect scenerio.

If you get a rapid warming with a substantial rain fall that causes a quick melt. All the water in the snow will do nothing for the rivers and streams in late spring to early summer.

I think we can all agree that more water is better than less and nobody said anything about a "rapid warming".

The original topic was snowpack in the Catskills and I believe it is beneficial to a longer, healthier and more sustained coldwater fishing season which will probably begin later than usual.

But ask a fisheries biologist. If you'd like DM me for contacts.

Thank you.

Kind regards and tight lines,
TR

 

[Kilgour Farms]

I believe the snow pack has more to do with reservoir levels and releases later in the spring then it does with early spring stream levels and temps.

 

[Trout Nazi]

So I'm a troll because I'm questioning this? Or are you really pissed because I called you out on some of your shitty flies?

If we are going to talk relative (relative to mountains), 1200ft is not high. The 2-3 foot snow packs we get here in the mid-atlantic are nothing, like Kilgour said most of the "runoff", fills the reservoirs. This isn't like out west where the snowpack doesn't start melting until June, and the rivers are high for over a month from 20+ feet of snow melting in the high mountains. Aquifers are kept replenished by steady precip, my well doesn't get replenished because of the snowpack. Not only that, but 2012 was a warm year, with warm rains, and then we still didn't exactly have drought conditions, did we? What determines a good vs. bad year here are the temperatures and amount of precip that we get. A "relatively" warm winter (more rain than snow) with plenty of cold rain is just as good as a fictional 10ft snow pack we won't ever have here.

And how does an ecosystem get started by the way?

 

[Rusty Spinner]

Trout Nazi is correct for our area of NJ. Snow pack is no more relevant than is winter rains provided either can get into the ground. This winter being as cold as it has, rains would not have helped much as they would have flashed downstream and not deep into our aquifers. But in the absence of warm spells, we'll take the snow provided it melts off slowly. Our streams are our elevations are different than the Catskills. You can't have a one-size-fits-all mentality, TR. And to say 2012 was solely due to a lack of snow pack is not telling the entire picture. It was unbelievably warm and dry both that winter. If it had rained more during those 60+ degree days, snow pack would not have been much of an issue, even for the Catskills. But it neither rained nor snowed and we all saw those extremely early hatches throughout the entire Northeast that year.

But if NJ's snow pack is gone by next week and that's not likely, spring rains will be equally important for our aquifers. Last winter was nothing to write home about regarding snow fall here, yet we only had a few days this past summer where water temps exceeded 70F and we stopped trout fishing. We got enough spring and early summer rains to get us by and we actually went into this winter in a deficit which is likely gone now. So snow pack is not the only requirement here nor is it nearly as important as other watersheds or areas of the country.

 

[TR]

Trout Nazi is correct for our area of NJ.

New Jersey?

My original post / thread had to do with the Catskills - not New Jersey.

See below. Thank you.

========

Re: =Snow Survey - NYC DEP: 2/6/14=

Good morning.

Attached is a NYC DEP snow survey which is compiled every three weeks for locations around the New York City reservoirs in the Catskills and Delaware River system.

=========

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Snow pack is no more relevant than is winter rains provided either can get into the ground...

Right.

That's why its important to have snowpack / snowcover vs. freezing hard exposed earth.

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This winter being as cold as it has, rains would not have helped much as they would have flashed downstream and not deep into our aquifers. But in the absence of warm spells, we'll take the snow provided it melts off slowly. Our streams are our elevations are different than the Catskills.

The original post in this thread had to do with the Catskills not New Jersey.

Repeat:

The Catskills.
The NYC DEP.
Snow Survey.
The Catskills.

------

And to say 2012 was solely due to a lack of snow pack is not telling the entire picture. It was unbelievably warm and dry both that winter. If it had rained more during those 60+ degree days, snow pack would not have been much of an issue, even for the Catskills. But it neither rained nor snowed and we all saw those extremely early hatches throughout the entire Northeast that year.

Look. Snowpack is important in the Catskills, and it is better to have more than less, but if you want to argue that point that's your call.

Kind regards and tight lines,
TR

 

[MACFLY]

Typical NEFF

We have snow on the ground. Its Cold. The rivers are cold and relatively full for this time of year. Lets be happy and not worry about what form the precipitation comes in or whether 2200ft is considered a mountain or not. Hopefully this year I can fish over Hendricksons. You boobs can argue about when they will show up.

 

[TR]

So I'm a troll because I'm questioning this? Or are you really pissed because I called you out on some of your shitty flies?

Ouch!

Well, at least a few folks like them...

http://www.flytyingforum.com/index.php?showtopic=76907

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Snowpack doesn't matter, we don't live in the Rockies or high mountains where they get real snow and have an actual runoff season.

Ask a fisheries biologist if snowpack matters for the Catskills / Poconos or if it's better not to have it.

Thank you.

Kind regards and tight lines,
TR

 

[Trout Nazi]

Ask a fisheries biologist if snowpack matters for the Catskills / Poconos or if it's better not to have it.

Thank you.

Kind regards and tight lines,
TR[/QUOTE]


Ask a fisheries biologist if lots of steady precip over the winter is any better or worse than snowpack, see what they say. Pretty sure they're going to say that water is the key, however it gets into the ground. And I don't have to ask other biologists anything, not on this topic anyway.

 

[JeffK]

Winter precipitation is important for ground water in NJ. NJ and much of the mid Atlantic region is unique in that precipitation is fairly uniform on average at about very, very roughly 4" a month or 1" a week. We have no rainy or dry seasons. This varies a lot year to year and watershed to watershed of course. The precipitation doesn't change, but in the summer the evaporation and transpiration rate goes up to maybe 1" a week so the ground water isn't being replenished and even drops if the rainfall is low. The low stream levels of summer are due to increased evaporation and transpiration and not less rain. Therefore, what falls when the leaves are off the trees matters to what goes in the ground or the reservoirs.

 

[TR]

Ask a fisheries biologist if lots of steady precip over the winter is any better or worse than snowpack, see what they say. Pretty sure they're going to say that water is the key, however it gets into the ground.

Well, TN, if the ground is bare and rock solid from freezing air temps throughout the winter, no amount of water is going to be absorbed by it which is not good for the aquifers and any replenishment.

And I don't have to ask other biologists anything, not on this topic anyway.

[/QUOTE]

Snowpack doesn't matter, we don't live in the Rockies or high mountains where they get real snow and have an actual runoff season. What matters here is temperature and precipitation in whatever form it comes.

Right.

As long as the water can get into the ground.

Kind regards, tight lines and light breezes to you.

TR

 

[Trout Nazi]

Well, TN, if the ground is bare and rock solid from freezing air temps throughout the winter, no amount of water is going to be absorbed by it which is not good for the aquifers and any replenishment.

Right.

As long as the water can get into the ground.

Kind regards, tight lines and light breezes to you.

TR
[/QUOTE]

We don't live in a region, not even the Catskills, where the ground is uniformly frozen all winter. If its cold enough to snow, it snows, if its warm enough to rain for an extended period of time, the ground melts. Watch what happens by the end of this week.

 

[TR]

We don't live in a region, not even the Catskills, where the ground is uniformly frozen all winter. If its cold enough to snow, it snows, if its warm enough to rain for an extended period of time, the ground melts. Watch what happens by the end of this week.

{Depending on rainfall and air temps}

1. Some of the snowpack will melt.
2. Some water will run off.
3. Some water will be absorbed by the ground.
4. Some water will freeze when air temps in the Catskills go below 32 which they are forecasting with highs in the low 40's lows in the 20's.

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Snowpack doesn't matter...

Yes, it do.

 

[lightenup]

Typical NEFF

.

That's why we are all here, no?

 

[Kilgour Farms]

A snow pack acts as an insulator preventing a deep freeze into the ground. When temps rise the ground thaws more quickly with a snow pack then it does without one. This allows water to penetrate the ground and replenishing aquifers. Snow packs melt from top down but the water remains at 32 degrees, latent heat of fusion, allowing a certain amount of water to reach aquifers. No snow pack or a limited amount and the ground freezes to depth, usually in the Catskills 48' and doesn't allow the water to penetrate into the aquifers and takes longer to melt allowing for limited absorption and more runoff.

I shortened my explanation and it may seem somewhat confusing but with out getting into physics and latent heat of fusion this is how it generally works.

 

[brachycentrus]

{Depending on rainfall and air temps}

1. Some of the snowpack will melt.
2. Some water will run off.
3. Some water will be absorbed by the ground.
4. Some water will freeze when air temps in the Catskills go below 32 which they are forecasting with highs in the low 40's lows in the 20's.

-----
NYDEP maintains snow pillows throught the Eastern Catskills in order to measure snowpack. It is one of the components on the FFMP. Wish that they had installed them above Cannonsville as it is an entirely different watershed, This is part of their OST model which dictates the releases at certain times of the year.
As we have seen, year after year, it is all smoke and mirrors as we had virtually no spring snow pack last year, warm spring, a bunch of thermal events but still ended up with a surplus of water at the end of the water year.
The OST, which NYC bragged was such a great modeling tool has been an abysmal failure and I believe was just instituted to but time to prevent a purported lawsuit from the downbasin states.
Unfortunately, it appears that it will be tweaked and used again this year. If NOAA cannot predict weather patterns, how the hell is NYCDEP all of a sudden in the weather prediction business. Obviously, more snowmpack and a normal spring will extend the cool water season going into late spring early summer, but there is enough water in the reservoirs to accomplish that if NYC didnt have their heads up their asses.
There is some progress being made with partners that have political sway outside of NYC along with some great trib restoration projects being done by FUDR in conjunction with Hancock and Deposit.
Join FUDR, go to the One Bug event this year. It will be at Fireman's Park, Hancock on Friday night and is a great time and get inviolved. Plus the food, open bar, live auction and silent auction are great and provide some great swag from all of the better fly fishing retailers.
Just my opinion, but for what it;s worth, if you fish the Delaware system, then you have a moral obligation to join the only group that is looking out for your interests, $35.00 a year is a tiny price to pay to protect, lobby and enhance this world class fishery that has never reached it's potential.

 

[TR]

NYDEP maintains snow pillows throught the Eastern Catskills in order to measure snowpack. It is one of the components on the FFMP. Wish that they had installed them above Cannonsville as it is an entirely different watershed, This is part of their OST model which dictates the releases at certain times of the year.

As we have seen, year after year, it is all smoke and mirrors as we had virtually no spring snow pack last year, warm spring, a bunch of thermal events but still ended up with a surplus of water at the end of the water year.

Correct.

There was very little snowpack in the Catskills 2012 as well.

I believe LI, NJ and CT received more snow than us.
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The OST, which NYC bragged was such a great modeling tool has been an abysmal failure and I believe was just instituted to but time to prevent a purported lawsuit from the downbasin states.
Unfortunately, it appears that it will be tweaked and used again this year. If NOAA cannot predict weather patterns, how the hell is NYCDEP all of a sudden in the weather prediction business. Obviously, more snowmpack and a normal spring will extend the cool water season going into late spring early summer, but there is enough water in the reservoirs to accomplish that if NYC didnt have their heads up their asses.

Well, not only can the NOAA not predict but Harris-Mann Climatology is not too hot either. At WWE 2103, Pettinger of TU remarked how spot on they were.

This year their batting average is .500.

They've been right about the temps this winter (below average) -- wrong about the precipitation (they said below average as well).

See:
Long Range Weather Trends, Weather Records and Extremes, Weather and Climate History, Daily Forecast Services

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It is a world class fishery that has never reached its potential.

Hear Hear.

I have said that many times to clients, at shows and at seminars over twenty years, at UDC meetings and at town board meetings -- I say it to anybody that will listen.

Somebody mentioned you are a guide, if you want the current NYC DEP snowpack study email me if you do not have it already.

There are 13 locations at Cannonsville. - from Walton to Stilesville.
14 locations at Pepacton.
15 locations at Neversonk.
13 loactions at Rondout.

As well as Ashokan and Schoharie.

Data is emailed to me from NYC DEP every three weeks.

Kind regards and tight lines.

TR

 

[lightenup]

So I'm in NJ, and was doing my daily shoveling....I am almost done, and noticed when I hit a patch of grass that the ground is already saturated and soft....with the quick melt coming, I see a potential for flooding here. Still wetter is better.....