Is Climate change science really settled?

MACFLY

Too many streams too little time
Amidst the march last week by some 300k people in NYC, this article appeared front page in the WSJ. I thought it was very interesting to read against the backdrop of the march and subsequent UN conference where the president spoke on the need for immediate and significant action to combat climate change.

Give the article a good read because it addresses the issue from a unique perspective.

Physicist Steve Koonin impeaches scientists’ climate consensus
 
This article makes some very good points. I interact with scientists studying various aspects of climate change (or climate change related effects) fairly regularly. It's not a single problem, it's many things...from atmospheric composition to growing corn and raising cows, not just driving cars and coal power plants. Now I'm not saying we should stop all agriculture or cease driving, but it's worth noting that a lot our daily lives can have subtle and not so subtle effects on the global climate. I've yet to interact with someone who doesn't believe in climate change, but I also don't know a single scientist who believes we've "figured it out".

Sadly, the only way we can get a better idea of what needs to be done is more research, and budget cuts have greatly reduced the amount of money available to researchers. In an attempt to be as unbiased and nonpartisan as possible, I will just say that we live in a complex world where budget decisions are often difficult. Our current economy and approach to taxation makes it almost impossible to fund everything that we probably should.
 
In a word, no. The models aren't holding up to what is supposed to be happening to climate so that in and of itself is problematic. To be certain, the planet is in a warming phase. But do we truly understand man's impact on that change? No.

That said, I have problems with the two sides that believe it is settled and that we either are living in desperate times and need to change our ways immediately or that it is all hokum and man has had no effect on climate. For me, the truth lies somewhere in the middle so far.
 
I think more enlightening, or interesting, are the comments on the article.

Depends on what you mean by enlightening. Now before this thread devolves into a Mother Earth vs evil capitalism debate take note that his article specifically said the climate varies and there is a likelihood that humans are playing a role. What's not understood is to what degree. The remedies suggested to date do in fact amount to a large transfer of wealth and significant economic disruption. That's a lot to contend with when we don't honestly understand the scope of the issue and what would be needed to fix it. Here is where I think conservatives have really screwed up. This issue could be a great policy win for those on the right. The lack of a comprehensive and balanced energy policy that brings more nuclear, hydrogen, solar & wind to compliment natural gas and oil is a direct result of republican stupidity. If we had spent 1/3 of the economic stimulus on modernizing the grid we could reduce unnecessary emissions by 15% and would have created a bunch of jobs in the process?the right should lead on this as a way to spawn an economic revolution with the side benefit of reducing the carbon foot print. Even if you don't believe its dangerous why do you care if its creating an economic benefit. The democrats on the other hand are getting yanked further to the left on this issue. The march least week started off as an anti capitalism rally and many key democrats were in attendance. Noted rabid environmentalists like Robert Kennedy jr were calling for laws prohibiting folks from opposing their views.

So this is in fact what it all comes down to. We are yet again divided by ideology on both sides and the political leadership on each side is acting with extreme stupidity.
 
Yeah and the great protestors who want to save the planet, left a ton of garbage behind for NYC to clean up.
 
The climate is changing, and will continue to change. The human effect is being largely overblown. Even the article states that the human influences are physically small. The root cause of all the hokum is this: "The remedies suggested to date do in fact amount to a large transfer of wealth and significant economic disruption." Our president throughout the last 6 years has mentioned "redistribution of wealth" how many times, and in how many different contexts? There is no way you will ever see objective science. All of these "experts"? Follow where their funding comes from, and you'll see.
 
Everything that is at all controversial about this commentary is a result of terrible writing by Koonin.

His point is that there is much about climate change that is not well understood yet. Great. Thanks guy.

Policy will require a better understanding. Again, super.

(As a side note what are the implications of this particular stance... we should not make any policy until everything's settled? When everything's settled Tobias will be trying to make us all jealous with the snook and permit he's catching in the mangrove swamps near Fairbanks. Why wait if we can make a difference now, regardless of what the root causes are?)

Okay, so that about covers his main two points.

The problem is that, even though he readily acknowledges that there has been a significant human impact on climate change, he seems to call this fact into question by hemming and hawing in a very vague way about the precise relative contributions of human use of fossil fuels vs. natural variation.

So, even though one of his primary purposes in this terrible editorial is to dispel the notion that human-caused global warming is a hoax (read it again if you're doubtful about this), he ends up throwing lots of fossil fuel on the fire.

Heckuva job Koonie.
 
The climate is changing, and will continue to change. The human effect is being largely overblown. Even the article states that the human influences are physically small. The root cause of all the hokum is this: "The remedies suggested to date do in fact amount to a large transfer of wealth and significant economic disruption." Our president throughout the last 6 years has mentioned "redistribution of wealth" how many times, and in how many different contexts? There is no way you will ever see objective science. All of these "experts"? Follow where their funding comes from, and you'll see.

Follow the funding?

Are you serious?

The scientific community hasnt been bought.

Otherwise, they'd have sold out to the highest bidder.

Right?
 
Everything that is at all controversial about this commentary is a result of terrible writing by Koonin.

His point is that there is much about climate change that is not well understood yet. Great. Thanks guy.

Policy will require a better understanding. Again, super.

(As a side note what are the implications of this particular stance... we should not make any policy until everything's settled? When everything's settled Tobias will be trying to make us all jealous with the snook and permit he's catching in the mangrove swamps near Fairbanks. Why wait if we can make a difference now, regardless of what the root causes are?)

Okay, so that about covers his main two points.

The problem is that, even though he readily acknowledges that there has been a significant human impact on climate change, he seems to call this fact into question by hemming and hawing in a very vague way about the precise relative contributions of human use of fossil fuels vs. natural variation.

So, even though one of his primary purposes in this terrible editorial is to dispel the notion that human-caused global warming is a hoax (read it again if you're doubtful about this), he ends up throwing lots of fossil fuel on the fire.

Heckuva job Koonie.
I think the implication of the statement is that you can't implement the level of change being contemplated by the UN (and let's be blunt here without the buy in and agreement of countries like china and India) without some understanding of the real role we play in impacting climate change.

And Its just a a bit silly to say read it again if you don't think he is suggesting humans play a role . That's precisely why I posted the article. I'm sorry but if you don't think the current scheme for reducing greenhouse gases is to effect a large transfer of wealth then I suggest you go and read some of the statements by peolel that attended the march last week.
 
Follow the funding? Are you serious? The scientific community hasnt been bought. Otherwise, they'd have sold out to the highest bidder. Right?

Don't be naive now. There was no money in climate science, until now that is. Who do you think is funding this crap, and why?
 
Yes it's settled! Al Gore and Barry Soetero says it is! If you don't agree with them, then you are a terrorist! Not like ISIL/ ISIS. They're not terrorists nor do the represent islam.

Manbearpig!!

1441990-090623_manbearpig.jpg
 
Any policy we do make should probably be, for our own good, to do nothing. The historical record shows pretty clearly that most species, especialy humans, do better during warm periods as opposed to colder ones. The only problem, really, would that you might run into Beetle - wearing a thong.
 
I tried to stay out of this...

Any policy we do make should probably be, for our own good, to do nothing. The historical record shows pretty clearly that most species, especialy humans, do better during warm periods as opposed to colder ones. The only problem, really, would that you might run into Beetle - wearing a thong.

Wow. Ignoring the "historical" (I'm assuming you mean fossil) record, and the difference between species diversity and success for a single species...

...can you really write this on a site mostly dedicated to a group of fish that require cold water? Really?

TN: I'm sure you're a great person, so hopefully no hard feelings here...but declaring that an entire group of scientists is completely lacking in morals? All publications of merit require a statement of any bias or vested interest. Have some scientists been immoral, probably. Most...99.99%...are not a bunch of money chasing asshats. If they were, they wouldn't be scientists.
 
Quiet down. Everything is normal, all is well. Now Im signing off to go fishing. Let me see if i have everything, Buff, protective gloves, and my SPF 50 shirt.
 
I tried to stay out of this...



Wow. Ignoring the "historical" (I'm assuming you mean fossil) record, and the difference between species diversity and success for a single species...

...can you really write this on a site mostly dedicated to a group of fish that require cold water? Really?

TN: I'm sure you're a great person, so hopefully no hard feelings here...but declaring that an entire group of scientists is completely lacking in morals? All publications of merit require a statement of any bias or vested interest. Have some scientists been immoral, probably. Most...99.99%...are not a bunch of money chasing asshats. If they were, they wouldn't be scientists.

As a scientist, you should know how this game is played. I watched how was played in school and industry. Most of the guys in life sciences for example got in it for the science and it's benefit for man, and hey, a good job in industry to. I think it's safe to say that anyone studying "the climate" is jockeying for some of that easy funding these days. No one even studied this, or aspired to, when I was in school. But if you have any physics or meteorology background (or not), why not hop on the gravy train?
 
I tried to stay out of this...



Wow. Ignoring the "historical" (I'm assuming you mean fossil) record, and the difference between species diversity and success for a single species...

...can you really write this on a site mostly dedicated to a group of fish that require cold water? Really?

TN: I'm sure you're a great person, so hopefully no hard feelings here...but declaring that an entire group of scientists is completely lacking in morals? All publications of merit require a statement of any bias or vested interest. Have some scientists been immoral, probably. Most...99.99%...are not a bunch of money chasing asshats. If they were, they wouldn't be scientists.


Why stay out of It? I mean some folks will certainly look at this thread as an opportunity to make crazy comments but the article itself is pretty interesting and underscores a critical point in this whole debate. That's what is important. That we actually debate this and research it further. I think both sides have cling to an ideology that is not serving anyone very well.
 
Why stay out of It? I mean some folks will certainly look at this thread as an opportunity to make crazy comments but the article itself is pretty interesting and underscores a critical point in this whole debate. That's what is important. That we actually debate this and research it further. I think both sides have cling to an ideology that is not serving anyone very well.

Trying to solve the world's problems Mac? I don't think any of you boobs discussing this on a fly fishing forum will help anyone...I mean Beetle is still nuts, and Simms is still a pompous ass and that has been discussed hundreds of times here...:)


Far from trying to solve any problems I am more interested in understanding the details of these issues. Btw thanks for making my point you boob.
 
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Where to start? I don't have the energy for an actual response to these lame ass BS threads these days. I think it was just about a year ago that we were "debating" the legitimacy of the claim that the global climate was even changing. Now suddenly everyone is willing to accept that temps are, indeed, on the rise and that human activity is part of the cause?

Over the past 10 years my views have swayed with the tides of reasonable, logical arguments (some of them here, believe it or not) but one constant has remained; deniers continue to discredit the data with false arguments until they have exhausted that route, and then they step back and change the argument, and attempt to discredit the data opposing their newly adopted view.

The science is settled:
-Global climate systems are rapidly changing
-Human activities have significantly contributed to these changes
-The implications of continued changes at current and projected rates are dire

The science is not yet settled:
-We don't know enough about all of the mechanisms involved to accurately predict exactly how and when populations will be affected
-Even if we knew enough about the mechanisms, modeling resolution is likely far too inaccurate to predict exact impacts at an exact location
-We don't know how much we can limit our impact, if at all, at this point

We have (been squandering) a fantastic opportunity to change our course for the better. Greener energy policy, industrial practices, and lifestyles can benefit us as individuals and the economy as a whole if they are wisely implemented, and will position us to continue to be world leaders as petroleum-based economies eventually go to the grave. This is regardless and independent of global climate change. Instead we sit around like the politicians and pundits, arguing endlessly about points of opinion and dogmatic belief rather than fact. The fact that China is investing heavily in green technologies, while the US is not, should strike us as very troubling. Our "leaders" can't even get the science right. I'm sure most have seen the clip of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology "vs" John Holdren by now (if not...you really should consider it...but hide the razor blades if you're already feeling depressed about the political system and state of scientific debate in america). John Stewart's inadequate description of sea-level rise aside, the hearing is incredibly disturbing.

Really? Warm temps are better for us? Those types of statements are obviously not well-founded in science. Warming periods *may* spark an increase in species proliferation, historically (I don't know); that just means there is an increase in competition between species. We are already seeing migration and proliferation of invasives at incredible rates, in the midst of one of, if not the largest extinction event in the history of the earth. Ease of intercontinental travel is a prime culprit in introducing non-native species, but in many cases, climate changes are allowing them to flourish in otherwise inhospitable places. Meanwhile, natives are being outcompeted by introduced species, or stripped of their habitat altogether. A big fear in this region is the loss of hemlock stands to the wooley adelgid...resulting in raising stream temps and loss of trout habitat (this is a fly fishing board, after all). Historical agricultural crops in some areas are already becoming unstable, and the future does not bode well. There are too many interconnected loops for there to be a net benefit to humans, a pinnacle species with a huge footprint, from rapid global climate change. So please, refrain from believing and repeating this type of nonsense.

So what's the solution? Global revolutionary paradigm shift would be great, but I hear that rarely works out well. The only option I see is to break the gridlock and rhetoric to draft a true domestic energy policy that can transition the economy to the next step...as a start. Fossil fuels aren't going anywhere anytime soon, but if we are not prepared, it will hurt. And not doing anything about global climate change because "the science is not settled" to the level of precision that you demand is quite sure to prove to be cultural suicide. All this crap about international agreements is meaningless; we need to take care of ourselves first because, (1) in the end, that is what is best for us, and (2) that gives us standing and leverage over UN legislation and individual countries.

Not a lot of people enjoy change. Frankly, I hate it, only because I am immensely lazy. It's understandable to resist that our lifestyle is killing us. It's reassuring to blame the messenger, or their backer, or declare conspiracy rather than face the music. All the time I hear that this country is going down the wrong road, losing the initiative, becoming weak. I personally don't give a shit about that attitude, but if that's your thing, you should be championing the US to lead the fight for change. It's easy to enjoy the status quo. Until it all comes raining down.

If you bothered to read that whole thing, my sympathies. I don't think there is any hope for my viewpoints coming to fruition on the national stage. I'm sure Mac and Toby and Nazi will try to roast me on this. Like I said, I don't have the energy to debate this here, so enjoy the free punches. I'm bowing back out after this.
 
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