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  1. #1
    TR's Avatar
    TR is offline "You can observe a lot just by watching." Y. Berra
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    =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    Just in.

    Attached as a screenshot.

    Folks might want to compare the actual BG readings from today to the historical BG for the same date.

    Dry.

    Tight lines.
    TR

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    This is a big El Niņo (there's an oxymoron) year. There will be plenty of precip, in one form or another, falling over the next month, including an inch in the next 24hrs. It doesn't really matter what the snowpack is. If this were a western state that relies on mountain runoff to fill reservoirs it would matter.

    Roll up the windows Brian, you're letting the stank out.

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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    I agree. If there was ever a year we needed a warm winter with rain over snow this is it. Had we had a cold winter with even average snow fall we would have been in trouble with reservoir levels. Now we can confidently assume capacity will be close to normal starting the season. Also- lets not forge that the last two winters were cold and above average snow years, with what can be only described as shit early spring hatches. Last year was the worst hendrickson hatch i've seen in 15 years. They never even came off on many sections. So lets hope an easier winter results in better bugs this spring.


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    TR's Avatar
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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    Only time will tell.

    The fact is that the NYC reservoirs are in better shape (>25%+) compared to last year at this time with over 83% now at Cannonsville and Pepacton at 81%.

    I had mentioned in a previous post that they would spill before early April (>8 weeks from now).

    What that would do would be to add volume to the rivers thus slowing any warming of water temps eventhough most of the spill will be from the top. Since it would be early spring, water temps from the top would be in the 40s/50s resulting in bank high water all the way to Damascus and water temps in the 40s/50s due to no exposed streambed or no evaporation.

    Might be dicey to wade but I'd rather have spillage throughout April and into May than no spill with NYC releasing 150cfs from the bottom which happened last year and the year before resulting in water temps exceeding 68 in mid May of 2015.

    Plus - there will be more water in the Delaware system to fish as opposed to having 16 trailers at Tower Road in May.

    Tight lines,
    TR

    Previous NYC DEP snowpack data:

    http://www.njflyfishing.com/vBulleti...-2-6-14-a.html


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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    Quote Originally Posted by flyI4 View Post
    If there was ever a year we needed a warm winter with rain over snow this is it. Had we had a cold winter with even average snow fall we would have been in trouble with reservoir levels.
    Could you please just explain this one to me?

    Why was a warm late fall/early winter a good thing?
    Why is rain better than snow?
    Thanks.

    John
    Some circumstantial evidence is very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk.--Henry David Thoreau

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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    the rain we got blew the upper west branch out above the res on multiple occasions in nov/december which played a major role in filling cannonsville back up near capacity. If we had gotten a few inches of snow around that time frame we would not have seen the same spike in flows on the upper west and the res would be nowhere near its current level of 85%. Snow does not blow the rivers out the same way rain does .


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    TR's Avatar
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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    Good morning.

    That is correct JC.

    USGS graph below for the past 90 days at Walton, NY.

    Tight lines,
    TR

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    Quote Originally Posted by TR View Post
    Good morning.

    That is correct JC.

    USGS graph below for the past 90 days at Walton, NY.

    Tight lines,
    TR

    Click image for larger version. 

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    I sometimes find it hard to follow...

    From the thread you pointed us to...

    Quote Originally Posted by TR View Post
    However, in my opinion, and you should also ask other guides, outfitters, retailers and fishery biologists whether a healthy Catskill / Pocono snowpack / ice like we have at present are just as important for a sustained and longer coldwater season where specific hatches might possibly last longer and river / stream temperatures will certainly stay below 70 for longer than usual.

    This year, if you drive up to DeBruce, Mongaup, Little Pond, Halls Mills - I think you'll see freestone tribs running cold and full regardless if it's a "normal" spring.

    And, that's due to the current snowpack. which has accumulated due to colder than average air temperatures this winter.

    TR
    You are agreeing that rain was good for the system this winter and previously told us that snow pack was better...

    If the rain had fallen as snow earlier this year we'd have a great accumulation to put into the reservoirs...
    So it fell as rain and got there sooner... except the rain that soaked into the earth due to the ground NOT being frozen...

    Whatever...

    But the reservoirs RIGHT NOW are at a normal level for this time of year...
    And according to the snowpack numbers you provided us, there is 31 billion gallons LESS than normal laying frozen on the ground in the D's watershed...

    It's raining pretty good today...
    They are predicting a higher than normal chance for storms through March...

    John
    Some circumstantial evidence is very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk.--Henry David Thoreau

  9. #9
    TR's Avatar
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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    Quote Originally Posted by Future Fanatic View Post
    I sometimes find it hard to follow...

    From the thread you pointed us to...
    That was the NYC DEP snow survey from a previous year.

    ------

    Quote Originally Posted by Future Fanatic View Post

    You are agreeing that rain was good for the system this winter and previously told us that snow pack was better...
    USGS chart from Walton, NY from the last 90 days shows how Cannonsville refilled rapidly with rainfall in 2015-2016 as opposed to snow which was JC's premise that I agree with.

    Snow and /or rain is certainly better than no precip.

    This winter - 2015/2016 - we are getting rain in the Catskills.

    -----------
    Quote Originally Posted by Future Fanatic View Post
    If the rain had fallen as snow earlier this year we'd have a great accumulation to put into the reservoirs...
    So it fell as rain and got there sooner... except the rain that soaked into the earth due to the ground NOT being frozen...

    Whatever...

    The NYC reservoir storage is in better shape right now than compared to last year.

    -------

    Quote Originally Posted by Future Fanatic View Post

    But the reservoirs RIGHT NOW are at a normal level for this time of year...
    Yes. That is correct.

    -------
    Quote Originally Posted by Future Fanatic View Post

    And according to the snowpack numbers you provided us, there is 31 billion gallons LESS than normal laying frozen on the ground in the D's watershed...
    Yes.

    Those are the most recent NYC DEP snow survey data for 2/2/16.

    ------

    Quote Originally Posted by Future Fanatic View Post

    It's raining pretty good today...
    They are predicting a higher than normal chance for storms through March...
    They had originally forecast 1 to 2 inches for the Catskills.

    Light rain to moderate rain in Narrowsburg.

    When the front goes through, I don't think that we will receive more than three quarter inch to an inch from this system.

    More precip - whether it be snow or rain - is better than none.

    Tight lines,
    TR


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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    It's appropriate that this thread was started yesterday.......its like Groundhog Day - the same shit every year with the same people thinking they know how the weather and precip will effect the Delaware system in the coming year.

    Then, some of those same people will whine if the river is too high or too low and blame others for it. How about this? Go fish when you can, adapt your tactics to the river conditions and try not to get in your own way........

    Mel


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    flyI4's Avatar
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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    Quote Originally Posted by TheHeron View Post
    It's appropriate that this thread was started yesterday.......its like Groundhog Day - the same shit every year with the same people thinking they know how the weather and precip will effect the Delaware system in the coming year.

    Then, some of those same people will whine if the river is too high or too low and blame others for it. How about this? Go fish when you can, adapt your tactics to the river conditions and try not to get in your own way........

    Mel

    Mel, whats wrong bud?


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    Re: =NYC DEP Snow Survey: 2/2/16=

    Quote Originally Posted by TheHeron View Post
    It's appropriate that this thread was started yesterday.......its like Groundhog Day - the same shit every year with the same people thinking they know how the weather and precip will effect the Delaware system in the coming year.

    Then, some of those same people will whine if the river is too high or too low and blame others for it. How about this? Go fish when you can, adapt your tactics to the river conditions and try not to get in your own way........

    Mel
    I agree, I haven't been able to fish since New Year's day despite some nice weather...... Monday, conditions be whatever they are, I am at least going for a walk with my rod......Moose would you care to join me?

    "I'm not out on the river to win." -Kieth Rutherford

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