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  1. #37
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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    Quote Originally Posted by golden beetle View Post
    Good to be polite and have some humility, especially in regards to the people who've put in effort here.

    I cant comment on Jim personally tho.

    Because Jim hasn't yet met the Beetle.
    And lets hope he never does. We dont want ro lose him

    To look good is to fish good

  2. #38
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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    Quote Originally Posted by WBDluver View Post
    And lets hope he never does. We dont want ro lose him
    You goon.

    let's fish as soon as this is over with...


  3. #39
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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_Spinner View Post
    Hi All,

    Mostly useful discussions the last few days over the current condition of the Delaware and releases from the NYC reservoirs. It still troubles me that there is so much incorrect information out there after all of these years. It is obvious that some have not even taken the time to read the FFMP.

    It is not an easy read, but it is not long:

    http://water.usgs.gov/osw/odrm/docum..._Agreement.pdf

    As always, respectful questions will be answered.

    It has been asked: Do I think we are better off now on the system? No question in my mind that we are much better off.



    Jim
    Jim,

    I know dealing with these issues is a difficult and often thankless job.

    To determine if FFMP is actually an improvement, I assume someone is looking at the average water temperature, maximum water temperature, and the number of times certain temperature parameters have been exceeded at various points on the West Branch, East branch and mainstem Delaware each summer before and after it was initiated. Would you mind sharing this information?

    Much appreciated.


  4. #40
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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    Hi Ross,

    Good question.

    Of course, I have multiple answers and a troubling note!!

    This was essentially the basic question that the decree parties asked several years ago when we lobbied for more water.

    "How do you know you will improve/protect the system if we give you more water?"

    The answer was we all thought it was good, but they wanted proof.

    I think the outcome goes even beyond the question you asked.

    Enter the Habitat Decision Support System Model (the DSS)

    Now we had a way to test various model runs against each other and see what improved and what got worse.

    The DSS takes the output from the OASIS model (OASIS tracks all changes of flow in the Delaware Basin each day over 80 years of record.) and compares various runs against each other. For instance, how do things change when we increase the release on the East Branch from 140 cfs to 190 cfs in the summer?

    "What does the DSS compare?" you might ask!

    In many ways the DSS goes beyond the temperature questions that you asked about.

    Habitat for various species are compared.

    Adult trout habitat is one of several as is juvenile trout, spawning trout, benthic (bugs), etc.

    The DSS output shows how adult trout habitat changes with flow and or release. An increase in flow may result in an increase in habitat and the DSS quantifies this by counting the square meters of habitat.

    Now, the DSS also allows you to set a temperature target for habitat. For instance you can run the DSS with the same two OASIS output runs at various temperature targets.

    So, we can see how much more trout habitat is created with the increase of release from 140 to 190 at a 68 degree maximum temp and then run it again with a 72 degree max.

    So there is a lot you can, but that is still theoretical. It is based on the best science for habitat available.

    Luckily there are all kinds of gauges on the rivers and one can compare the actual temperatures under various actual releases. You have to be a bit careful here, since air temp differences can skew the results, but it is a start.

    More to follow

    Jim


  5. #41
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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    Hi Beetle,

    We are in complete agreement about NYC DEP and risk.

    There is no blame here, protecting their water supply is what they do.

    I do think that we have shown them that there are ways to improve the rivers an not raise their risk levels.

    For example, FFMP design allows for 20-25 % of wasteful dangerous spill to be converted to useful release. This is a good thing.

    There are other ways to accomplish this and create a win/win/neutral result.

    Win - better habitat
    Win - reduced flood risk
    Neutral - NYC storage not affected.

    Jim


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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_Spinner View Post
    Hi Ross,

    Good question.

    Of course, I have multiple answers and a troubling note!!

    This was essentially the basic question that the decree parties asked several years ago when we lobbied for more water.

    "How do you know you will improve/protect the system if we give you more water?"

    The answer was we all thought it was good, but they wanted proof.

    I think the outcome goes even beyond the question you asked.

    Enter the Habitat Decision Support System Model (the DSS)

    Now we had a way to test various model runs against each other and see what improved and what got worse.

    The DSS takes the output from the OASIS model (OASIS tracks all changes of flow in the Delaware Basin each day over 80 years of record.) and compares various runs against each other. For instance, how do things change when we increase the release on the East Branch from 140 cfs to 190 cfs in the summer?

    "What does the DSS compare?" you might ask!

    In many ways the DSS goes beyond the temperature questions that you asked about.

    Habitat for various species are compared.

    Adult trout habitat is one of several as is juvenile trout, spawning trout, benthic (bugs), etc.

    The DSS output shows how adult trout habitat changes with flow and or release. An increase in flow may result in an increase in habitat and the DSS quantifies this by counting the square meters of habitat.

    Now, the DSS also allows you to set a temperature target for habitat. For instance you can run the DSS with the same two OASIS output runs at various temperature targets.

    So, we can see how much more trout habitat is created with the increase of release from 140 to 190 at a 68 degree maximum temp and then run it again with a 72 degree max.

    So there is a lot you can, but that is still theoretical. It is based on the best science for habitat available.

    Luckily there are all kinds of gauges on the rivers and one can compare the actual temperatures under various actual releases. You have to be a bit careful here, since air temp differences can skew the results, but it is a start.

    More to follow

    Jim
    I appreciate the quick response, but I'm not sure you understood the question. Models are nice, but there is only one way to know what is actually going on in the river. Review the data and compare!


    I'm sure the powers that be would want actual detailed info on the temperatures seen in the rivers and how these have improved (or not) under FFMP. That's what I was looking for as well.

    I realize there are numerous gages to provide this basic info, but I'm assuming someone has looked at this, done the analysis and can offer proof that FFMP has improved things.


    Thanks!


  7. #43
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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    Hi Ross,

    I got it. The modeling is theoretical and it would be nice if we could show that the system is working as the model predicts.

    There is a provision in the FFMP that requires NYS DEC to file an annual report on temperatures and habitat. They are a bit behind.

    Although it is cumbersome it is relatively easy to compare years for flow and temperature from the USGS gauge data.

    I have attached a flow comparison between 1990 and 2014. We know that 2014 was on the wet side, I do not know about 1990, but it at least both have high flows in May. I would like to find a May that did not spill and compare to this year!!

    There are any number of combinations of flow and temperature across different years that can be done.

    The actual data could also be compared to daily data from the models.

    jim

    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    [QUOTE=Big_Spinner;251499]Hi Ross,

    I got it. The modeling is theoretical and it would be nice if we could show that the system is working as the model predicts.

    There is a provision in the FFMP that requires NYS DEC to file an annual report on temperatures and habitat. They are a bit behind.

    Although it is cumbersome it is relatively easy to compare years for flow and temperature from the USGS gauge data.

    I have attached a flow comparison between 1990 and 2014. We know that 2014 was on the wet side, I do not know about 1990, but it at least both have high flows in May. I would like to find a May that did not spill and compare to this year!!


    Jim

    So than how can you or I say that the plan is for the better or for the worse? If we don't have real data.

    As Ross states models, theory's and forecasting is one thing.

    The reality is and you Obviously know this but the Delaware system literally has no water in at as I write this with the Reservoirs at 98%.

    Also you state that on June 1 we will have 500cfs.Is that an educated guess on your part ?

    The way the plan is written anything above 225 cfs is voluntary, correct ?

    Thanks

    Joe .T


  9. #45
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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_Spinner View Post
    Hi Ross,

    I got it. The modeling is theoretical and it would be nice if we could show that the system is working as the model predicts.

    There is a provision in the FFMP that requires NYS DEC to file an annual report on temperatures and habitat. They are a bit behind.

    Although it is cumbersome it is relatively easy to compare years for flow and temperature from the USGS gauge data.

    I have attached a flow comparison between 1990 and 2014. We know that 2014 was on the wet side, I do not know about 1990, but it at least both have high flows in May. I would like to find a May that did not spill and compare to this year!!

    There are any number of combinations of flow and temperature across different years that can be done.

    The actual data could also be compared to daily data from the models.

    jim
    I still am not sure that this is useful. The idea of FFMP is to keep trout-friendly temperatures in the 3 rivers, right? Has this improved with FFMP? I certainly would not trust data provided by the state. Don't we have our own review? Has anyone done an analysis?


    When I take a quick look at the USGS station data for the West Branch (Hale Eddy), East Branch (Fish's Eddy) and mainstem (Lordville) they only have temperature back to 2007. It shows better temperatures from 2012 through 2014 on the WB than in 2008-2011. But it looks to be pretty much the same throughout on the other 2 waterways. This is just from one fast look. I'd really like to see data that goes back quite a bit farther and a full-blown review of it. Do we have that? Comparing flows in 1990 to 2014 really doesn't help much.


  10. #46
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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    [QUOTE=JOE.T;251520]
    Quote Originally Posted by Big_Spinner View Post
    Hi Ross,

    I got it. The modeling is theoretical and it would be nice if we could show that the system is working as the model predicts.

    There is a provision in the FFMP that requires NYS DEC to file an annual report on temperatures and habitat. They are a bit behind.

    Although it is cumbersome it is relatively easy to compare years for flow and temperature from the USGS gauge data.

    I have attached a flow comparison between 1990 and 2014. We know that 2014 was on the wet side, I do not know about 1990, but it at least both have high flows in May. I would like to find a May that did not spill and compare to this year!!


    Jim

    So than how can you or I say that the plan is for the better or for the worse? If we don't have real data.

    As Ross states models, theory's and forecasting is one thing.

    The reality is and you Obviously you know this but the Delaware system literally has no water in at as I write this with the Reservoirs at 98%.

    Also you state that on June 1 we will have 500cfs.Is that an educated guess on your part ?

    The way the plan is written anything above 225 cfs is voluntary, correct ?

    Thanks

    Joe .T
    That's exactly my point. Forget about the models. Look at what has really happened. Did conditions improve with FFMP? In what way?


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    JOE.T (05-14-2015)

  12. #47
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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    Quote Originally Posted by rossk View Post
    I still am not sure that this is useful. The idea of FFMP is to keep trout-friendly temperatures in the 3 rivers, right? Has this improved with FFMP? I certainly would not trust data provided by the state. Don't we have our own review? Has anyone done an analysis?



    When I take a quick look at the USGS station data for the West Branch (Hale Eddy), East Branch (Fish's Eddy) and mainstem (Lordville) they only have temperature back to 2007. It shows better temperatures from 2012 through 2014 on the WB than in 2008-2011. But it looks to be pretty much the same throughout on the other 2 waterways. This is just from one fast look. I'd really like to see data that goes back quite a bit farther and a full-blown review of it. Do we have that? Comparing flows in 1990 to 2014 really doesn't help much.
    Ross you can back go much further tha 2007 on USGS.

    Click on Summary of all available data for this site, which is right below the "box" with Discharge, Temp etc.


  13. #48
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    Re: Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

    Quote Originally Posted by JOE.T View Post
    Ross you can back go much further tha 2007 on USGS.

    Click on Summary of all available data for this site, which is right below the "box" with Discharge, Temp etc.
    So, the information is there. I can't imagine that somebody - TU, FUDR, etc. - hasn't done a full-blown analysis and looked especially at the potential improvements brought about by FFMP. Just waiting to hear.


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