Delaware River FFMP/OST: the good, the bad .....

[NJFred]

Jim thanks for the post. I do have one question... around what happens June 1. You wrote the following.

All is not lost: On June 1st the releases should restore to Table F or G and summer releases will be 500 cfs on the WB, 140 cfs on the EB and 110 cfs on the Neversink. (Compare those numbers to June 1st releases under Rev 1, Cannonsville 45 cfs, Rev ? 160 cfs, Rev 7 225 flow minimum at Hale Eddy) How can this be?? Come and find out.

My question is why will we go from table 4a to table 4f or 4g when June 1st rolls around? We are in 4a now as the Forecast Available Water (FAW) is 0 MGD. To go to 4f or 4g the city will need to go from 0MGD to 75 or 100 MGD of Forecast Available Water on June 1? I hope you are right. Sticking with FAW of 0 is Table 4a at means as I read it 200 to 225CFS max release across the summer.

I'm not trying to argue this plan is better or worse... Just trying to continue to understand it.

Jim....I completely agree with you that we need a thermal relief release built into the plan. As I write this the immediate temperature situation is over (Lordville probably hit 78 or so degrees F yesterday... reading + 4 degrees) and we are getting a mere 25CFS bump up in the release. As they say.. ."too little... too late!"

[MACFLY]

JC I agree completely. Years ago whe n this same nonsense was going on I was saying the same thing. All these guys do is bitch and complain. I heard repeatedly that FUDR was going to succeed where big spinner had failed. Now I support FUDR and hope they can get changes but it seems to me they have come to realize this is not an easy issue to resolve. Look Jim offers to do a webinar and the response "post it to Vimeo". SERIOUSLY!!!

Rossk says sue them!!! Ok I can see his point and pretty sure I said the same thing 5 years ago as well. Here is the issue though. Suing these guys will take a lot of money and time and resources. Who will fund this and put in the time if we can't even get folks to attend a webinar or help set up a video system. So to all the haters out there who claim to love the river. Maybe it's time to stop blaming the one guy who has tried to do anything and step up yourselves because 11 years of bitching on NEFF hasn't accomplished very much

I would just like to come out and say a few things. First- for those that come on this site and ridicule Jim Serio- GET REAL. Jim was the original advocate for this river and was out there fighting for better flows at at a time that many didn't even know what the Delaware was. He STARTED the dialogue and political debate when it came to delaware flows and now FUDR and the large fishing base it represents is piggy backing off of the work he didn't just help- but largely brought into effect. Also comical- is the fact that many that ridicule this man are people that didn't donate, appear, or even show up for the stream cleanups hosted by FUDR at the One bug or other events, and simply are coming on here venting while they refuse to volunteer their backs or voice for a more productive cause to advocate for the watershed to the city. Hypocrites.

A quick story about Jim to let you know the kind of guy he is. My dad and I stayed at West branch Angler in 1996 which was the year the huge brown was caught that is mounted above the bar and it was caught the same week we were there. We didn't catch a thing but we fished hard, had a blast, and I got a flybox with a few flies before we left. The fly box had west branch angler's number on it and when we got home I began calling WBA on a daily basis asking how the fishing was. Jim Serio was working the shop then and used to hear me out as I told him "worms were working " down on shadow lake in Monmouth County NJ and would tell me what was hatching up there. After calling him for a month straight, he called my dad and said a kid was calling him long distance every month and figured he would let my dad know- and soon after I got a kit of fly tying materials and flies in the mail from Jim that he sent for free to keep me interested in the sport. The guy is grade A and always fought for the fishery, yet people on here are bashing him who haven't attended a single meeting or any other conservation event to support the fishery. Laughable. Jim put in more effort than anyone and never asked for a single bit of gratitude in response. Show a little respect.

[TR]

Hi Tony,

Not sure what answer you are looking for.

I'm looking for a straight answer.

------------

When we have a dry spring, which we have had, the rivers will be below the mean and or probably the median too.

------------

So, if you look at the Hale Eddy USGS chart which shows the actual level for May 12th 2015 vs. the 50 year median and mean levels for this date, you would suggest that this is the driest spring in the Catskills in the fifty plus years for our region?

If not, then why is that station under 50% the historical median / mean data?

Please advise.
Thank you.

-------------

NYC strives to start the water year (June 1st) with full reservoirs so in a dry year they release less water.

Hope this helps,

Jim

Yes, Jim. I realize that.

Murphy of NYC DEP stated that at the UDC presentation last year.

Last question.

Were you the person, along with Peter Kolesar, that suggested and / or brokered the current FFMP plan that the system is now under which have tables (4A, 4B, 4C, etc...) with water releases to be released by New York City prior to June 1st (i.e. < 175cfs from Cannonsville) or was that solely implemented by New York City?

Prior to June 1st, who was the person that recommended those water release numbers?

Please advise.

Thank you.

TR

-----------

[rossk]

JC I agree completely. Years ago whe n this same nonsense was going on I was saying the same thing. All these guys do is bitch and complain. I heard repeatedly that FUDR was going to succeed where big spinner had failed. Now I support FUDR and hope they can get changes but it seems to me they have come to realize this is not an easy issue to resolve. Look Jim offers to do a webinar and the response "post it to Vimeo". SERIOUSLY!!!

Rossk says sue them!!! Ok I can see his point and pretty sure I said the same thing 5 years ago as well. Here is the issue though. Suing these guys will take a lot of money and time and resources. Who will fund this and put in the time if we can't even get folks to attend a webinar or help set up a video system. So to all the haters out there who claim to love the river. Maybe it's time to stop blaming the one guy who has tried to do anything and step up yourselves because 11 years of bitching on NEFF hasn't accomplished very much

I realize it is easy to say "sue" and much harder to do. No reflection on Jim Serio and his work. But the funding exists. Sadly, it is not being made available. If you go on the Trout Unlimited website, there is a whole section on the Delaware but not a single mention of water flow or temperature problems. With this level of inattention, it is no wonder the job isn't getting done.

In my opinion, you need both education AND hardcore advocacy (lawyers). Otherwise the states and NYC will never take you seriously. They do things because they have to, not because its right. You must have both the carrot and the stick. Right now the one side is totally lacking.

Personally, I thought the river system was in much better shape prior to FFMP. It just doesn't seem to be used as it was intended. Personal observation, nothing more.

[TR]

Data attached.




So, if you look at the Hale Eddy USGS chart which shows the actual level for May 12th 2015 vs. the 50 year median and mean levels for this date, you would suggest that this is the driest spring in the Catskills in the fifty plus years for our region?

If not, then why is that station under 50% the historical median / mean data?

Please advise.
Thank you.

Were you the person, along with Peter Kolesar, that suggested and / or brokered the current FFMP plan that the system is now under which have tables (4A, 4B, 4C, etc...) with water releases to be released by New York City prior to June 1st (i.e. < 175cfs from Cannonsville) or was that solely implemented by New York City?

Prior to June 1st, who was the person that recommended those water release numbers?

[BioGuy]

Just a note on the chart. The minimum flow (1985, lowest in 50 years) was 85. Way lower than this year. We are merely in the bottom 25%, or 12.5 years, for the period.

Why is it below 50%? Because that's the nature of random (stochastic) events. Sometimes you throw bad dice.

Data attached.




So, if you look at the Hale Eddy USGS chart which shows the actual level for May 12th 2015 vs. the 50 year median and mean levels for this date, you would suggest that this is the driest spring in the Catskills in the fifty plus years for our region?

If not, then why is that station under 50% the historical median / mean data?

Please advise.
Thank you.

Were you the person, along with Peter Kolesar, that suggested and / or brokered the current FFMP plan that the system is now under which have tables (4A, 4B, 4C, etc...) with water releases to be released by New York City prior to June 1st (i.e. < 175cfs from Cannonsville) or was that solely implemented by New York City?

Prior to June 1st, who was the person that recommended those water release numbers?

[MACFLY]

Data attached.




So, if you look at the Hale Eddy USGS chart which shows the actual level for May 12th 2015 vs. the 50 year median and mean levels for this date, you would suggest that this is the driest spring in the Catskills in the fifty plus years for our region?

If not, then why is that station under 50% the historical median / mean data?

Please advise.
Thank you.

Were you the person, along with Peter Kolesar, that suggested and / or brokered the current FFMP plan that the system is now under which have tables (4A, 4B, 4C, etc...) with water releases to be released by New York City prior to June 1st (i.e. < 175cfs from Cannonsville) or was that solely implemented by New York City?

Prior to June 1st, who was the person that recommended those water release numbers?

Tony your data makes the point for what exactly. What happens in a normal spring. The reservoirs are filled and spilling. The temps are cooler. We have more rain. So we have an anomaly this year that is causing a bad situation on the Delaware. Needs to get fixed but what goes on here and other boards is ridiculous and really not helping anyone. I have no doubt you care about the river but your enemy isn't on this board. It's the folks that don't want you to have any water at all.

[Big_Spinner]

[/ATTACH][QUOTE=NJFred;251329]Jim thanks for the post. I do have one question... around what happens June 1. You wrote the following.

All is not lost: On June 1st the releases should restore to Table F or G and summer releases will be 500 cfs on the WB, 140 cfs on the EB and 110 cfs on the Neversink. (Compare those numbers to June 1st releases under Rev 1, Cannonsville 45 cfs, Rev ? 160 cfs, Rev 7 225 flow minimum at Hale Eddy) How can this be?? Come and find out.

My question is why will we go from table 4a to table 4f or 4g when June 1st rolls around? We are in 4a now as the Forecast Available Water (FAW) is 0 MGD. To go to 4f or 4g the city will need to go from 0MGD to 75 or 100 MGD of Forecast Available Water on June 1? I hope you are right. Sticking with FAW of 0 is Table 4a at means as I read it 200 to 225CFS max release across the summer.

I'm not trying to argue this plan is better or worse... Just trying to continue to understand it.

Hi Fred,

This is a great insightful question and gets to the core of both the good and bad of the FFMP/OST.

I am attaching a quick and dirty excel spreadsheet that attempts to illustrate where I think we may be on June 1st. I have made a couple of very conservative guesses as to how much water NYC will predict for inflow and diversions for the water year.

[ATTACH]11690

This should put us in Table G for the start of the year.

I still expect the reservoirs to spill if we get even just a minimal amount of rain in the next two weeks, so we may be much higher in actual total storage level.

A lot more on this later, but off to work!!!!

jim

[babyblue]

I am going to host a seminar/question/answer meeting on Friday, May 22nd from 7-9 pm.

I would like to hear what this is all about. I will be there.

[golden beetle]

Tony your data makes the point for what exactly. What happens in a normal spring. The reservoirs are filled and spilling. The temps are cooler. We have more rain. So we have an anomaly this year that is causing a bad situation on the Delaware. Needs to get fixed but what goes on here and other boards is ridiculous and really not helping anyone. I have no doubt you care about the river but your enemy isn't on this board. It's the folks that don't want you to have any water at all.

Tony is a guide, no?

So Mac, my guess is that he wants to work.

He's not looking to take, take, take, a fracking lease, and get money for nothing....

He wants to work.

He sees.the reservoirs at 98 percent capacity, but his place of work is bone dry.

And he sees forum moderators, ahem, at fly fishing sites, ridicule alternatives that would reduce NYC's dependency on that water that's sitting in the reservoirs, while he aint able to work.

Since when did guys like TR, who rant about wanting to work become unreasonable, and the problem, and guys like FF, who would sign a gas lease on the streambed, if he could, become reasonable and understandable?

Explain.

[MACFLY]

Tony is a guide, no?

So Mac, my guess is that he wants to work.

He's not looking to take, take, take, a fracking lease, and get money for nothing....

He wants to work.

He sees.the reservoirs at 98 percent capacity, but his place of work is bone dry.

And he sees forum moderators, ahem, at fly fishing sites, ridicule alternatives that would reduce NYC's dependency on that water that's sitting in the reservoirs, while he aint able to work.

Since when did guys like TR, who rant about wanting to work become unreasonable, and the problem, and guys like FF, who would sign a gas lease on the streambed, if he could, become reasonable and understandable?

Explain.

Beetle Stop

Seriously dude stop.

You want to spout off on the forum and throw out snarky comments just don't need complain when they come back at you. The only thing you are good at is deflecting the issue. I clearly stated tony care about the river but my post is very clear. You would be hard pressed to disagree. As for your alternative solution, you realize NYC had applied a years ago for a waiver not to build a filtration system and was granted one by the eps. Now you want to have them build a desalination plant. All so they won't take more water from the reservoir. This is not a serious proposal you boob

[JOE.T]

Hi All,

Mostly useful discussions the last few days over the current condition of the Delaware and releases from the NYC reservoirs. It still troubles me that there is so much incorrect information out there after all of these years. It is obvious that some have not even taken the time to read the FFMP.

It is not an easy read, but it is not long:

http://water.usgs.gov/osw/odrm/docum..._Agreement.pdf

As always, respectful questions will be answered.

It has been asked: Do I think we are better off now on the system? No question in my mind that we are much better off.

Many years ago when I sat on a committee to help develop an new operating plan for the Delaware River Basin Commission someone spoke up and said they felt that "Education is the most important aspect of what we can do". At the time I thought about it for a bit and decided that it was a good idea, but certainly not the most important thing that we could do.

I have since changed my mind! Education a public and a core group of caring fishermen is the most important thing we can do to move forward to improve releases and the FFMP.

You have all read about OASIS and DSS, come and see a demonstration!

How much do you all care? I am going to host a seminar/question/answer meeting on Friday, May 22nd from 7-9 pm. The venue in Hancock to be determined. Please give me a show of hands if you are interested. I think the best way to change something is to completely understand how it works, both fundamentally and politically. It may cost you a night of fishing, but refreshments will be served.

Some highlights and lowlights:

The good:

All is not lost: On June 1st the releases should restore to Table F or G and summer releases will be 500 cfs on the WB, 140 cfs on the EB and 110 cfs on the Neversink. (Compare those numbers to June 1st releases under Rev 1, Cannonsville 45 cfs, Rev ? 160 cfs, Rev 7 225 flow minimum at Hale Eddy) How can this be?? Come and find out.

FFMP fundamentally changed the concept of NYC water management. The idea that when there is more water in the system FFMP would allow for more releases is the core idea behind the FFMP. I think it is working.

The Bad:

The EB is particularly suffering under FFMP Table A today. Rev 7 had a minimum flow at Harvard of 175 on the EB, today the flow is less than 90.

There is no Thermal Protection Plan built into the system, even though a proposal has been on the table for 2 years.

How can we improve:

Thermal Protection should be implemented

Get Trout Unlimited back involved in the process, in my opinion they have lost their way.

Require more transparency and eliminate or at least reduce the NYC DEP black box that they are allowed to operate under.

Require NYC to produce the OST Summary on a weekly basis. This will help reduce the "black box"

http://water.usgs.gov/osw/odrm/docum...2015-04-20.pdf

There are new and updated OASIS and DSS models, the more they get used the more we can all gain.

So, what do you think, is it worth the effort, or am I wasting my time?

Jim

Ok Jim I'll be there you name the place,If it's just you and I that show up we'll go fish and chat on the river.

JOE.T