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  1. #13
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Trout Nazi View Post
    March looks like a mixed bag, potential for some big storms up north. I've had more powder days this year than tha last 3 combined. You wouldn't be jealous if you knew the temps me and the boy skiied in this weekend. It was -1 Saturday, but -13 Sunday with 25mph gusts.

    Didn't see the big spinner falls last year with the Hendos, but then again I'm a March Brown/Iso guy. I like the sporadic big bugs because the fish get keyed in on the big spinners at night. I also like fishing Iso's in the riffs on the big river when the crowds are gone.
    March Browns and ISOS are my favorite hatches. ISOs cause you can fish it all the way through October. Stocking up on some ISOs already

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    "Angling is extremely time consuming. That's sort of the whole point." - Thomas McGuane

  2. #14
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Trout Nazi View Post
    March looks like a mixed bag, potential for some big storms up north. I've had more powder days this year than tha last 3 combined. You wouldn't be jealous if you knew the temps me and the boy skiied in this weekend. It was -1 Saturday, but -13 Sunday with 25mph gusts.

    Didn't see the big spinner falls last year with the Hendos, but then again I'm a March Brown/Iso guy. I like the sporadic big bugs because the fish get keyed in on the big spinners at night. I also like fishing Iso's in the riffs on the big river when the crowds are gone.
    I was skiing Whiteface on Sunday. It was as pretty nasty out but the snow was great and it kept everyone in Lake Placid. Great weekend.


  3. #15
    flyI4's Avatar
    flyI4 is offline Fishizzle, I use worms but I'm looking to upgrade!
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    I will go April 22nd. Even last year, the bugs were there give or take 3rd week in april but the fish just weren't on them. In my experience- the main stem fishing gets hurt the most when this happens since the hatch ends before fish start really looking up and then you get stuck with millions of apple caddis and few fish consistently taking them on the surface. Tailwaters will still be good and usually have the best spring fishing when the spring fishing turns on a bit late. Hatch drags out until mid to late may. I'll give up a couple weeks for extended spring time hatches.


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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by flyI4 View Post
    I will go April 22nd. Even last year, the bugs were there give or take 3rd week in april but the fish just weren't on them. In my experience- the main stem fishing gets hurt the most when this happens since the hatch ends before fish start really looking up and then you get stuck with millions of apple caddis and few fish consistently taking them on the surface. Tailwaters will still be good and usually have the best spring fishing when the spring fishing turns on a bit late. Hatch drags out until mid to late may. I'll give up a couple weeks for extended spring time hatches.
    I recall one epic day with you on the WB where we hit the first decent day of the hatch about 3 years ago

    A sinking fly is closer to Hell - ​Unknown

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  6. #17
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    That day reminds me of another thing about late springs. There is always a few places where the fish will rise earlier than others. When you find one of those- you are golden and that place happens to be one of them. Near Jim's house happens to be another. Three ingredients are shallow, flat, protected from the wind.


  7. #18
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_Spinner View Post


    Guess what date I see my first Hendrickson {in the Mud Flats}...

    Jim
    --------

    May 4 through 14 this year.

    Put another way, I don't think you'll see consistent afternoon water temperatures at 47 to 50 and staying there until early / mid May this year - 2015.

    Never seen this much thick ice - more than 2 feet - in the Big Eddy in 31 years.

    Frozen solid - bank to bank - plus it extends further south past the PA 652 boat launch.

    Straightaways up and down the river are also frozen shut bank to bank.

    2+ feet of snow pack throughout Cannonsville and Pepacton watersheds. (*see attached NYC DEP charts for late February 2015).

    Forecast for March 2015 has every night below freezing.

    You might still have ice floes on the river into mid / late April due to NO multi day thaw.

    14 below in Narrowsburg this morning.

    Tight lines.
    TR
    Gone Fishing Guide Service.┬* Upper Delaware River fishing and hand tied flies



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  9. #19
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    This year I will guess that the hatches including hendricksons will be sporadic and subpar late or early. The northeast experienced moderate dry conditions from late spring into the fall. The winter has produced record cold temperatures that created heavy icing on many streams. We have seen series of snow storms. Each storm has produced its share of road salt flowing into the streams. Add all this up and you have the perfect conditions for stunted larva growth. I say the hatches will be equal to worse of what we had last year.

    "Hatchery fish have the same colors, but they always seem muted like bad reproductions of great art." Bill Barich

  10. #20
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    I'm saying late April - just a little past normal, and not so great.

    This is based on the situation, as I remember, in the late 60's and early 70's when it was touch and go if I could fine any open water before the season closed for pre-season stocking. The S -bend in the Water Gap was jammed with several feet of ice in those years and when it let go it was quite the event. In those days the Hendrickson hatches were on time, but the water was so high and cold the fish really didn't rise too well. I haven't really had great Hendrickson hatch fishing until the last 15 years when we had warmer winters with lower water level April. This seems more like the winters of yore IMHO, so I am predicting the hatches will be like those days as well.

    And like all predictions of the average, like fly14 says, there will be some time and place where the action will be hot. It will just be harder to find the sweet spot.


  11. #21
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Any thoughts on whether this winter saw anchor ice in the rivers and what if anything this means for the eggs from this years spawn.

    "Angling is extremely time consuming. That's sort of the whole point." - Thomas McGuane

  12. #22
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Hi MAC,

    I do not think that anchor ice will be too much of a factor this year. Anchor ice usually forms when there is open water and cold air temperatures.

    The super cooled flowing water adheres to rocks in riffles and builds up.

    I think that the ice cover will prevent most of the anchor ice.

    The bigger problem is the flows were so low this winter that I am sure there was extensive exposure of the bottom. No water and cold temperatures means the river bottom may have frozen solid, along with bugs and redds.

    Release did go up to 150 on the West Branch earlier this week, but it may be too little to late for some of the bugs and redds.

    The lower East Branch has been in pretty good shape with more natural flows from the Beaverkill.

    Should be an interesting year!!!

    Jim


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  14. #23
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_Spinner View Post
    Hi MAC,

    I do not think that anchor ice will be too much of a factor this year. Anchor ice usually forms when there is open water and cold air temperatures.

    The super cooled flowing water adheres to rocks in riffles and builds up.

    I think that the ice cover will prevent most of the anchor ice.

    The bigger problem is the flows were so low this winter that I am sure there was extensive exposure of the bottom. No water and cold temperatures means the river bottom may have frozen solid, along with bugs and redds.

    Release did go up to 150 on the West Branch earlier this week, but it may be too little to late for some of the bugs and redds.

    The lower East Branch has been in pretty good shape with more natural flows from the Beaverkill.

    Should be an interesting year!!!

    Jim
    That sounds depressing. If true what bugs would be most impacted and what bugs might have a better chance of survival?

    "Angling is extremely time consuming. That's sort of the whole point." - Thomas McGuane

  15. #24
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    No idea really,

    There are better bug people on this site than I.

    If I had to guess, the attached caddis would have a tough time if they were in shallow water this winter.

    The big burrowing mayflys should be in good shape.

    Did not mean to be all doom and gloom. The releases we have had this winter are still a lot better than in the 80s and 90s when the winter releases on the EB and WB were 45 cfs or less for months at a time. Really low flows.

    Jim

    Jim


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