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  1. #1
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    Late Hatch Prediction

    Hi guys,

    West Branch has been completely frozen over for a month!!

    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	11449

    No hendricksons on the West Branch or Upper Mainstem until after May 1st this year!!!!

    Very little warm release this winter, so no bug development either.

    Guess what date I see my first Hendrickson at the house and win 6 flies!!!!

    Jim

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  2. #2
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    May 18......


  3. #3
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    I'm voting April 25th.. I have faith in "global warming"


  4. #4
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Second year in row I moved my annual Hendrickson trip up a week to begin on April 30th (until May 3rd) and I'm afraid Jim may be correct and we'll have another late hatch like last spring. It's all about degree days. I'm personally hoping for a warm spring and an end to winter soon, but so far that pattern isn't appearing.

    A sinking fly is closer to Hell - ​Unknown

  5. #5
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Let me be vey clear.....The Hendrickson's will hatch when I am not on the river.....I will be busy with chores, or home renovations, or work...
    To help you all out, I will post when I am not able to fish so you can enjoy the hatch.......

    May 5th.....

    "I'm not out on the river to win." -Kieth Rutherford

  6. #6
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    May 1st, on opening day of NY spring turkey.


  7. #7
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    I'm gonna guess April 20th, I don't think things will be as late as everyone thinks. Although, big picture, I'm hoping for a cool spring and cool summer. The fishing last year was awesome, you could basically fish the big river most of the summer, and September was epic.

    Roll up the windows Brian, you're letting the stank out.

  8. #8
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Trout Nazi View Post
    I'm gonna guess April 20th, I don't think things will be as late as everyone thinks. Although, big picture, I'm hoping for a cool spring and cool summer. The fishing last year was awesome, you could basically fish the big river most of the summer, and September was epic.
    I hope you're right, but last year they showed in big numbers on the Tuesday after we left and that was May 6th. You would expect them to begin lower on the mainsteam and move upstream, but they literally started everywhere in big numbers that Tuesday when the day was sunny and warm. Most of the last 10 (ish) years, that hatch began by mid-April and the one freakish warm year it began in late March. I moved up our trip last year after basically missing the hatch by Mother's Day weekend which is when we used to go up. Now instead of it being nearly over, it hasn't begun

    A sinking fly is closer to Hell - ​Unknown

  9. #9
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Rusty Spinner View Post
    I hope you're right, but last year they showed in big numbers on the Tuesday after we left and that was May 6th. You would expect them to begin lower on the mainsteam and move upstream, but they literally started everywhere in big numbers that Tuesday when the day was sunny and warm. Most of the last 10 (ish) years, that hatch began by mid-April and the one freakish warm year it began in late March. I moved up our trip last year after basically missing the hatch by Mother's Day weekend which is when we used to go up. Now instead of it being nearly over, it hasn't begun
    He said first fly, not a vast hatch, so I'm playing by The Prices Right rules and trying not to go over.

    I follow the weather closely this time of year (for skiing purposes), and the prediction is that this polar weather will ease by end of Feb, as the jetstream will tighten somewhat and the ridge will shift away from the western North America and focus itself more on the open waters of the Pacific Ocean. Not a 180 shift in weather, but we should be back to some moderation in March. So a "normal" spring is not entirely off the books. Then again, high-water could also push the hatch out.

    Roll up the windows Brian, you're letting the stank out.

  10. #10
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Trout Nazi View Post
    He said first fly, not a vast hatch, so I'm playing by The Prices Right rules and trying not to go over.

    I follow the weather closely this time of year (for skiing purposes), and the prediction is that this polar weather will ease by end of Feb, as the jetstream will tighten somewhat and the ridge will shift away from the western North America and focus itself more on the open waters of the Pacific Ocean. Not a 180 shift in weather, but we should be back to some moderation in March. So a "normal" spring is not entirely off the books. Then again, high-water could also push the hatch out.
    Yup, a buddy was just pointing out to me the long range weather and our general area is supposed to see 50s by the first week in March which would be fine by me since I'm no longer allowed to ski.

    As for the Hendricksons, I recall seeing a few every day last year beginning in late April, but not the numbers needed to bring those fish up steadily like that hatch always does at some point. Let's hope we get a moderate spring, that's all I'm asking for. Not too warm and not too cold and I'll be a happy camper. Enjoy your skiing, I'm jealous.

    A sinking fly is closer to Hell - ​Unknown

  11. #11
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_Spinner View Post
    Hi guys,

    West Branch has been completely frozen over for a month!!

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	20150130_172528.jpg 
Views:	168 
Size:	132.6 KB 
ID:	11449

    No hendricksons on the West Branch or Upper Mainstem until after May 1st this year!!!!

    Very little warm release this winter, so no bug development either.

    Guess what date I see my first Hendrickson at the house and win 6 flies!!!!

    Jim
    New or used flies?

    To look good is to fish good

  12. #12
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    Re: Late Hatch Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Rusty Spinner View Post
    Yup, a buddy was just pointing out to me the long range weather and our general area is supposed to see 50s by the first week in March which would be fine by me since I'm no longer allowed to ski.

    As for the Hendricksons, I recall seeing a few every day last year beginning in late April, but not the numbers needed to bring those fish up steadily like that hatch always does at some point. Let's hope we get a moderate spring, that's all I'm asking for. Not too warm and not too cold and I'll be a happy camper. Enjoy your skiing, I'm jealous.
    March looks like a mixed bag, potential for some big storms up north. I've had more powder days this year than tha last 3 combined. You wouldn't be jealous if you knew the temps me and the boy skiied in this weekend. It was -1 Saturday, but -13 Sunday with 25mph gusts.

    Didn't see the big spinner falls last year with the Hendos, but then again I'm a March Brown/Iso guy. I like the sporadic big bugs because the fish get keyed in on the big spinners at night. I also like fishing Iso's in the riffs on the big river when the crowds are gone.

    Roll up the windows Brian, you're letting the stank out.

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